The lava lake in the summit crater of Erebus has been active since at least 1972. Located in Antarctica overlooking the McMurdo Station on Ross Island, it is the southernmost active volcano on the planet. Because of the remote location, activity is primarily monitored by satellites. This report covers activity during 2023.

The number of thermal alerts recorded by the Hawai'i Institute of Geophysics and Planetology’s MODVOLC Thermal Alerts System increased considerably in 2023 compared to the years 2020-2022 (table 9). In contrast to previous years, the MODIS instruments aboard the Aqua and Terra satellites captured data from Erebus every month during 2023. Consistent with previous years, the lowest number of anomalous pixels were recorded in January, November, and December.

Table 9. Number of monthly MODIS-MODVOLC thermal alert pixels recorded at Erebus during 2017-2023. See BGVN 42:06 for data from 2000 through 2016. The table was compiled using data provided by the HIGP – MODVOLC Thermal Alerts System.

Sentinel-2 infrared images showed one or two prominent heat sources within the summit crater, accompanied by adjacent smaller sources, similar to recent years (see BGVN 46:01, 47:02, and 48:01). A unique image was obtained on 25 November 2023 by the OLI-2 (Operational Land Imager-2) on Landsat 9, showing the upper part of the volcano surrounded by clouds (figure 32).

Figure 32. Satellite view of Erebus with the summit and upper flanks visible above the surrounding weather clouds on 25 November 2023. Landsat 9 OLI-2 (Operational Land Imager-2) image with visible and infrared bands. Thermal anomalies are present in the summit crater. The edifice is visible from about 2,000 m elevation to the summit around 3,800 m. The summit crater is ~500 m in diameter, surrounded by a zone of darker snow-free deposits; the larger circular summit area is ~4.5 km diameter. NASA Earth Observatory image by Lauren Dauphin, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey.

Geologic Background. Mount Erebus, the world's southernmost historically active volcano, overlooks the McMurdo research station on Ross Island. It is the largest of three major volcanoes forming the crudely triangular Ross Island. The summit of the dominantly phonolitic volcano has been modified by one or two generations of caldera formation. A summit plateau at about 3,200 m elevation marks the rim of the youngest caldera, which formed during the late-Pleistocene and within which the modern cone was constructed. An elliptical 500 x 600 m wide, 110-m-deep crater truncates the summit and contains an active lava lake within a 250-m-wide, 100-m-deep inner crater; other lava lakes are sometimes present. The glacier-covered volcano was erupting when first sighted by Captain James Ross in 1841. Continuous lava-lake activity with minor explosions, punctuated by occasional larger Strombolian explosions that eject bombs onto the crater rim, has been documented since 1972, but has probably been occurring for much of the volcano's recent history.

Information Contacts: Hawai'i Institute of Geophysics and Planetology (HIGP) - MODVOLC Thermal Alerts System, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST), Univ. of Hawai'i, 2525 Correa Road, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA (URL: http://modis.higp.hawaii.edu/); Copernicus Browser, Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem, European Space Agency (URL: https://dataspace.copernicus.eu/browser/); NASA Earth Observatory, EOS Project Science Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Goddard, Maryland, USA (URL: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/152134/erebus-breaks-through).

Rincón de la Vieja is a volcanic complex in Costa Rica with a hot convecting acid lake that exhibits frequent weak phreatic explosions, gas-and-steam emissions, and occasional elevated sulfur dioxide levels (BGVN 45:10, 46:03, 46:11). The current eruption period began June 2021. This report covers activity during July-December 2023 and is based on weekly bulletins and occasional daily reports from the Observatorio Vulcanologico Sismologica de Costa Rica-Universidad Nacional (OVSICORI-UNA).

Numerous weak phreatic explosions continued during July-December 2023, along with gas-and-steam emissions and plumes that rose as high as 3 km above the crater rim. Many weekly OVSICORI-UNA bulletins included the previous week's number of explosions and emissions (table 9). For many explosions, the time of explosion was given (table 10). Frequent seismic activity (long-period earthquakes, volcano-tectonic earthquakes, and tremor) accompanied the phreatic activity.

Table 9. Number of reported weekly phreatic explosions and gas-and-steam emissions at Rincón de la Vieja, July-December 2023. Counts are reported for the week before the Weekly Bulletin date; not all reports included these data. Courtesy of OVSICORI-UNA.

Table 10. Summary of activity at Rincón de la Vieja during July-December 2023. Weak phreatic explosions and gas emissions are noted where the time of explosion was indicated in the weekly or daily bulletins. Height of plumes or emissions are distance above the crater rim. Courtesy of OVSICORI-UNA.

According to OVSICORI-UNA, during July-October the average weekly sulfur dioxide (SO₂) flux ranged from 68 to 240 tonnes/day. However, in mid-November the flux increased to as high as 334 tonnes/day, the highest value measured in recent years. The high SO₂ flux in mid-November was also detected by the TROPOMI instrument on the Sentinel-5P satellite (figure 43).

Figure 43. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) maps from Rincón de la Vieja recorded by the TROPOMI instrument aboard the Sentinel-5P satellite on 16 November (left) and 20 November (right) 2023. Mass estimates are consistent with measurements by OVSICORI-UNA near ground level. Some of the plume on 20 November may be from other volcanoes (triangle symbols) in Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Courtesy of the NASA Global Sulfur Dioxide Monitoring Page.

Geologic Background. Rincón de la Vieja, the largest volcano in NW Costa Rica, is a remote volcanic complex in the Guanacaste Range. The volcano consists of an elongated, arcuate NW-SE-trending ridge constructed within the 15-km-wide early Pleistocene Guachipelín caldera, whose rim is exposed on the south side. Sometimes known as the "Colossus of Guanacaste," it has an estimated volume of 130 km3 and contains at least nine major eruptive centers. Activity has migrated to the SE, where the youngest-looking craters are located. The twin cone of Santa María volcano, the highest peak of the complex, is located at the eastern end of a smaller, 5-km-wide caldera and has a 500-m-wide crater. A Plinian eruption producing the 0.25 km3 Río Blanca tephra about 3,500 years ago was the last major magmatic eruption. All subsequent eruptions, including numerous historical eruptions possibly dating back to the 16th century, have been from the prominent active crater containing a 500-m-wide acid lake located ENE of Von Seebach crater.

Information Contacts: Observatorio Vulcanológico Sismológica de Costa Rica-Universidad Nacional (OVSICORI-UNA), Apartado 86-3000, Heredia, Costa Rica (URL: http://www.ovsicori.una.ac.cr/); NASA Global Sulfur Dioxide Monitoring Page, Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA/GSFC), 8800 Greenbelt Road, Goddard MD 20771, USA (URL: https://so2.gsfc.nasa.gov/).

Bezymianny, located on Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula, has had eruptions since 1955 characterized by dome growth, explosions, pyroclastic flows, ash plumes, and ashfall. Activity during November 2022-April 2023 included gas-and-steam emissions, lava dome collapses generating avalanches, and persistent thermal activity. Similar eruptive activity continued from May through October 2023, described here based on information from weekly and daily reports of the Kamchatka Volcano Eruptions Response Team (KVERT), notices from Tokyo VAAC (Volcanic Ash Advisory Center), and from satellite data.

Overall activity decreased after the strong period of activity in late March through April 2023, which included ash explosions during 29 March and 7-8 April 2023 that sent plumes as high as 10-12 km altitude, along with dome growth and lava flows (BGVN 48:05). This reduced activity can be seen in the MIROVA thermal detection system graph (figure 56), which was consistent with data from the MODVOLC thermal detection system and with Sentinel-2 satellite images that showed persistent hotspots in the summit crater when conditions allowed observations. A renewed period of strong activity began in mid-October 2023.

Figure 56. The MIROVA (Log Radiative Power) thermal data for Bezymianny during 20 November 2022 through October 2023 shows heightened activity in the first half of April and second half of October 2023, with lower levels of thermal anomalies in between those times. Courtesy of MIROVA.

Activity increased significantly on 17 October 2023 when large collapses began during 0700-0830 on the E flanks of the lava dome and continued to after 0930 the next day (figure 57). Ash plumes rose to an altitude of 4.5-5 km, extending 220 km NNE by 18 October. A large explosion at 1630 on 18 October produced an ash plume that rose to an altitude of 11 km (8 km above the summit) and drifted NNE and then NW, extending 900 km NW within two days at an altitude of 8 km. Minor ashfall was noted in Kozyrevsk (45 km WNW). At 0820 on 20 October an ash plume was identified in satellite images drifting 100 km ENE at altitudes of 4-4.5 km.

Figure 57. Sentinel-2 satellite images of Bezymianny from 1159 on 17 October 2023 (2359 on 16 October UTC) showing a snow-free S and SE flank along with thermal anomalies in the crater and down the SE flank. Left image is in false color (bands 8, 4, 3); right image is thermal infrared (bands 12, 11, 8A). Courtesy of Copernicus Browser.

Lava flows and hot avalanches from the dome down the SE flank continued over the next few days, including 23 October when clear conditions allowed good observations (figures 58 and 59). A large thermal anomaly was observed over the volcano through 24 October, and in the summit crater on 30 October (figure 60). Strong fumarolic activity continued, with numerous avalanches and occasional incandescence. By the last week of October, volcanic activity had decreased to a level consistent with that earlier in the reporting period.

Figure 58. Daytime photo of Bezymianny under clear conditions on 23 October 2023 showing a lava flow and avalanches descending the SE flank, incandescence from the summit crater, and a small ash plume. Photo by Yu. Demyanchuk, courtesy of IVS FEB RAS, KVERT.

Figure 59. Night photo of Bezymianny under cloudy conditions on 23 October 2023 showing an incandescent lava flow and avalanches descending the SE flank. Photo by Yu. Demyanchuk, courtesy of IVS FEB RAS, KVERT.

Figure 60. Sentinel-2 satellite images of Bezymianny from 1159 on 30 October 2023 (2359 on 29 October UTC) showing a plume drifting SE and thermal anomalies in the summit crater and down multiple flanks. Left image is in true color (bands 4, 3, 2); right image is thermal infrared (bands 12, 11, 8A). Courtesy of Copernicus Browser.

Aviation warnings were frequently updated during 17-20 October. KVERT issued a Volcano Observatory Notice for Aviation (VONA) on 17 October at 1419 and 1727 (0219 and 0527 UTC) raising the Aviation Color Code (ACC) from Yellow to Orange (second highest level). The next day, KVERT issued a VONA at 1705 (0505 UTC) raising the ACC to Red (highest level) but lowered it back to Orange at 2117 (0917 UTC). After another decrease to Yellow and back to Orange, the ACC was reduced to Yellow on 20 October at 1204 (0004 UTC). In addition, the Tokyo VAAC issued a series of Volcanic Ash Advisories beginning on 16 October and continuing through 30 October.

Geologic Background. The modern Bezymianny, much smaller than its massive neighbors Kamen and Kliuchevskoi on the Kamchatka Peninsula, was formed about 4,700 years ago over a late-Pleistocene lava-dome complex and an edifice built about 11,000-7,000 years ago. Three periods of intensified activity have occurred during the past 3,000 years. The latest period, which was preceded by a 1,000-year quiescence, began with the dramatic 1955-56 eruption. This eruption, similar to that of St. Helens in 1980, produced a large open crater that was formed by collapse of the summit and an associated lateral blast. Subsequent episodic but ongoing lava-dome growth, accompanied by intermittent explosive activity and pyroclastic flows, has largely filled the 1956 crater.

Information Contacts: Kamchatka Volcanic Eruptions Response Team (KVERT), Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, 9 Piip Blvd., Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, 683006, Russia (URL: http://www.kscnet.ru/ivs/kvert/); Kamchatka Volcanological Station, Kamchatka Branch of Geophysical Survey, (KB GS RAS), Klyuchi, Kamchatka Krai, Russia (URL: http://volkstat.ru/); Tokyo Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC), 1-3-4 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8122, Japan (URL: http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/svd/vaac/data/); Hawai'i Institute of Geophysics and Planetology (HIGP) - MODVOLC Thermal Alerts System, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST), Univ. of Hawai'i, 2525 Correa Road, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA (URL: http://modis.higp.hawaii.edu/); MIROVA (Middle InfraRed Observation of Volcanic Activity), a collaborative project between the Universities of Turin and Florence (Italy) supported by the Centre for Volcanic Risk of the Italian Civil Protection Department (URL: http://www.mirovaweb.it/); Copernicus Browser, Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem, European Space Agency (URL: https://dataspace.copernicus.eu/browser/).chr

Kīlauea is the southeastern-most volcano in Hawaii and overlaps the E flank of the Mauna Loa volcano. Its East Rift Zone (ERZ) has been intermittently active for at least 2,000 years. An extended eruption period began in January 1983 and was characterized by open lava lakes and lava flows from the summit caldera and the East Rift Zone. During May 2018 magma migrated into the Lower East Rift Zone (LERZ) and opened 24 fissures along a 6-km-long NE-trending fracture zone that produced lava flows traveling in multiple directions. As lava emerged from the fissures, the lava lake at Halema'uma'u drained and explosions sent ash plumes to several kilometers altitude (BGVN 43:10).

The current eruption period started during September 2021 and has recently been characterized by lava effusions, spatter, and sulfur dioxide emissions in the active Halema’uma’u lava lake (BGVN 47:08). Lava effusions, some spatter, and sulfur dioxide emissions have continued during this reporting period of July through December 2022 using daily reports, volcanic activity notices, and abundant photo, map, and video data from the US Geological Survey's (USGS) Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).

Summary of activity during July-December 2022. Low-level effusions have continued at the western vent of the Halema’uma’u crater during July through early December 2022. Occasional weak ooze-outs (also called lava break outs) would occur along the margins of the crater floor. The overall level of the active lava lake throughout the reporting period gradually increased due to infilling, however it stagnated in mid-September (table 13). During September through November, activity began to decline, though lava effusions persisted at the western vent. By 9 December, the active part of the lava lake had completely crusted over, and incandescence was no longer visible.

Table 13. Summary of measurements taken during overflights at Kīlauea that show a gradual increase in the active lava lake level and the volume of lava effused since 29 September 2021. Lower activity was reported during September-October. Data collected during July-December 2022. Courtesy of HVO.

Activity during July 2022. Lava effusions were reported from the western vent in the Halema’uma’u crater, along with occasional weak ooze-outs along the margins of the crater floor. The height of the lava lake was variable due to deflation-inflation tilt events; for example, the lake level dropped approximately 3-4 m during a summit deflation-inflation event reported on 1 July. Webcam images taken during the night of 6-12 July showed intermittent low-level spattering at the western vent that rose less than 10 m above the vent (figure 519). Measurements made during an overflight on 7 July indicated that the crater floor was infilled about 130 m and that 95 million cubic meters of lava had been effused since 29 September 2021. A single, relatively small lava ooze-out was active to the S of the lava lake. Around midnight on 8 July there were two brief periods of lava overflow onto the lake margins. On 9 July lava ooze-outs were reported near the SE and NE edges of the crater floor and during 10-11 July they occurred near the E, NE, and NW edges. On 16 July crater incandescence was reported, though the ooze-outs and spattering were not visible. On 18 July overnight webcam images showed incandescence in the western vent complex and two ooze-outs were reported around 0000 and 0200 on 19 July. By 0900 there were active ooze-outs along the SW edge of the crater floor. Measurements made from an overflight on 19 July indicated that the crater floor was infilled about 133 m and 98 million cubic meters of lava had erupted since 29 September 2021 (figure 520). On 20 July around 1600 active ooze-outs were visible along the N edge of the crater, which continued through the next day. Extensive ooze-outs occurred along the W margin during 24 July until 1900; on 26 July minor ooze-outs were noted along the N margin. Minor spattering was visible on 29 July along the E margin of the lake. The sulfur dioxide emission rates ranged 650-2,800 tons per day (t/d), the higher of which was measured on 8 July (figure 519).

Figure 519. Minor spattering rising less than 10 m was visible at the E end of the lava lake within Halema‘uma‘u, at the summit of Kīlauea on 8 July 2022. Sulfur dioxide is visible rising from the lake surface (bluish-colored fume). A sulfur dioxide emission rate of approximately 2,800 t/d was measured on 8 July. Courtesy of K. Mulliken, USGS.

Figure 520. A helicopter overflight on 19 July 2022 allowed for aerial visible and thermal imagery to be taken of the Halema’uma’u crater at Kīlauea’s summit crater. The active part of the lava lake is confined to the western part of the crater. The scale of the thermal map ranges from blue to red, with blue colors indicative of cooler temperatures and red colors indicative of warmer temperatures. Courtesy of USGS, HVO.

Activity during August 2022. The eruption continued in the Halema’uma’u crater at the western vent. According to HVO the lava in the active lake remained at the level of the bounding levees. Occasional minor ooze-outs were observed along the margins of the crater floor. Strong nighttime crater incandescence was visible after midnight on 6 August over the western vent cone. During 6-7 August scattered small lava lobes were active along the crater floor and incandescence persisted above the western vent through 9 August. During 7-9 August HVO reported a single lava effusion source was active along the NW margin of the crater floor. Measurements from an overflight on 4 August indicated that the crater floor was infilled about 136 m total and that 102 million cubic meters of lava had been erupted since the start of the eruption. Lava breakouts were reported along the N, NE, E, S, and W margins of the crater during 10-16 August. Another overflight survey conducted on 16 August indicated that the crater floor infilled about 137 m and 104 million cubic meters of lava had been erupted since September 2021. Measured sulfur dioxide emissions rates ranged 1,150-2,450 t/d, the higher of which occurred on 8 August.

Activity during September 2022. During September, lava effusion continued from the western vent into the active lava lake and onto the crater floor. Intermittent minor ooze-outs were reported through the month. A small ooze-out was visible on the W crater floor margin at 0220 on 2 September, which showed decreasing surface activity throughout the day, but remained active through 3 September. On 3 September around 1900 a lava outbreak occurred along the NW margin of the crater floor but had stopped by the evening of 4 September. Field crews monitoring the summit lava lake on 9 September observed spattering on the NE margin of the lake that rose no higher than 10 m, before falling back onto the lava lake crust (figure 521). Overflight measurements on 12 September indicated that the crater floor was infilled a total of 143 m and 111 million cubic meters of lava had been erupted since September 2021. Extensive breakouts in the W and N part of the crater floor were reported at 1600 on 20 September and continued into 26 September. The active part of the lava lake dropped by 10 m while other parts of the crater floor dropped by several meters. Summit tiltmeters recorded a summit seismic swarm of more than 80 earthquakes during 1500-1800 on 21 September, which occurred about 1.5 km below Halema’uma’u; a majority of these were less than Mw 2. By 22 September the active part of the lava lake was infilled about 2 m. On 23 September the western vent areas exhibited several small spatter cones with incandescent openings, along with weak, sporadic spattering (figure 522). The sulfur dioxide emission rate ranged from 930 t/d to 2,000 t/d, the higher of which was measured on 6 September.

Figure 521. Photo of spattering occurring at Kīlauea's Halema’uma’u crater during the morning of 9 September 2022 on the NE margin of the active lava lake. The spatter material rose 10 m into the air before being deposited back on the lava lake crust. Courtesy of C. Parcheta, USGS.

Figure 522.The active western vent area at Kīlauea's Halema’uma’u crater consisted of several small spatter cones with incandescent openings and weak, sporadic spattering. Courtesy of M. Patrick, USGS.

Activity during October 2022. Activity during October declined slightly compared to previous months, though lava effusions persisted from the western vent into the active lava lake and onto the crater floor during October (figure 523). Slight variations in the lava lake were noted throughout the month. HVO reported that around 0600 on 3 October the level of the lava lake has lowered slightly. Overflight measurements taken on 5 October indicated that the crater floor was infilled a total of about 143 m and that 111 million cubic meters of lava had been effused since September 2021. During 6-7 October the lake gradually rose 0.5 m. Sulfur dioxide measurements made on 22 October had an emission rate of 700 t/d. Another overflight taken on 28 October showed that there was little to no change in the elevation of the crater floor: the crater floor was infilled a total of 143 m and 111 million cubic meters of lava had erupted since the start of the eruption.

Figure 523. Photo of the Halema’uma’u crater at Kīlauea looking east from the crater rim showing the active lava lake, with active lava ponds to the SE (top) and west (bottom middle) taken on 5 October 2022. The western vent complex is visible through the gas at the bottom center of the photo. Courtesy of N. Deligne, USGS.

Activity during November 2022. Activity remained low during November, though HVO reported that lava from the western vent continued to effuse into the active lava lake and onto the crater floor throughout the month. The rate of sulfur dioxide emissions during November ranged from 300-600 t/d, the higher amount of which occurred on 9 November.

Activity during December 2022. Similar low activity was reported during December, with lava effusing from the western vent into the active lava lake and onto the crater floor. During 4-5 December the active part of the lava lake was slightly variable in elevation and fluctuated within 1 m. On 9 December HVO reported that lava was no longer erupting from the western vent in the Halema’uma’u crater and that sulfur dioxide emissions had returned to near pre-eruption background levels; during 10-11 December, the lava lake had completely crusted over, and no incandescence was visible (figure 524). Time lapse camera images covering the 4-10 December showed that the crater floor showed weak deflation and no inflation. Some passive events of crustal overturning were reported during 14-15 December, which brought fresh incandescent lava to the lake surface. The sulfur dioxide emission rate was approximately 200 t/d on 14 December. A smaller overturn event on 17 December and another that occurred around 0000 and into the morning of 20 December were also detected. A small seismic swarm was later detected on 30 December.

Figure 524. Photo of Halema’uma’u crater at Kīlauea showing a mostly solidified lake surface during the early morning of 10 December 2022. Courtesy of J. Bard, USGS.

Geologic Background. Kilauea overlaps the E flank of the massive Mauna Loa shield volcano in the island of Hawaii. Eruptions are prominent in Polynesian legends; written documentation since 1820 records frequent summit and flank lava flow eruptions interspersed with periods of long-term lava lake activity at Halemaumau crater in the summit caldera until 1924. The 3 x 5 km caldera was formed in several stages about 1,500 years ago and during the 18th century; eruptions have also originated from the lengthy East and Southwest rift zones, which extend to the ocean in both directions. About 90% of the surface of the basaltic shield volcano is formed of lava flows less than about 1,100 years old; 70% of the surface is younger than 600 years. The long-term eruption from the East rift zone between 1983 and 2018 produced lava flows covering more than 100 km2, destroyed hundreds of houses, and added new coastline.

Information Contacts: Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO), U.S. Geological Survey, PO Box 51, Hawai'i National Park, HI 96718, USA (URL: http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/).

Nyamulagira (also known as Nyamuragira) is a shield volcano in the Democratic Republic of Congo with the summit truncated by a small 2 x 2.3 km caldera with walls up to about 100 m high. Documented eruptions have occurred within the summit caldera, as well as from numerous flank fissures and cinder cones. The current eruption period began in April 2018 and has more recently been characterized by summit crater lava flows and thermal activity (BGVN 48:05). This report describes lava flows and variable thermal activity during May through October 2023, based on information from the Observatoire Volcanologique de Goma (OVG) and various satellite data.

Lava lake activity continued during May. The MIROVA (Middle InfraRed Observation of Volcanic Activity) system recorded moderate-to-strong thermal activity throughout the reporting period; activity was more intense during May and October and relatively weaker from June through September (figure 95). The MODVOLC thermal algorithm, detected a total of 209 thermal alerts. There were 143 hotspots detected during May, eight during June, nine during September, and 49 during October. This activity was also reflected in infrared satellite images, where a lava flow was visible in the NW part of the crater on 7 May and strong activity was seen in the center of the crater on 4 October (figure 96). Another infrared satellite image taken on 12 May showed still active lava flows along the NW margin of the crater. According to OVG lava effusions were active during 7-29 May and moved to the N and NW parts of the crater beginning on 9 May. Strong summit crater incandescence was visible from Goma (27 km S) during the nights of 17, 19, and 20 May (figure 97). On 17 May there was an increase in eruptive activity, which peaked at 0100 on 20 May. Notable sulfur dioxide plumes drifted NW and W during 19-20 May (figure 98). Drone footage acquired in partnership with the USGS (United States Geological Survey) on 20 May captured images of narrow lava flows that traveled about 100 m down the W flank (figure 99). Data from the Rumangabo seismic station indicated a decreasing trend in activity during 17-21 May. Although weather clouds prevented clear views of the summit, a strong thermal signature on the NW flank was visible in an infrared satellite image on 22 May, based on an infrared satellite image. On 28 May the lava flows on the upper W flank began to cool and solidify. By 29 May seismicity returned to levels similar to those recorded before the 17 May increase. Lava effusion continued but was confined to the summit crater; periodic crater incandescence was observed.

Figure 95. Moderate-to-strong thermal anomalies were detected at Nyamulagira during May through October 2023, as shown on this MIROVA graph (Log Radiative Power). During late May, the intensity of the anomalies gradually decreased and remained at relatively lower levels during mid-June through mid-September. During mid-September, the power of the anomalies gradually increased again. The stronger activity is reflective of active lava effusions. Courtesy of MIROVA.

Figure 96. Infrared (bands B12, B11, B4) satellite images showing a constant thermal anomaly of variable intensities in the summit crater of Nyamulagira on 7 May 2023 (top left), 21 June 2023 (top right), 21 July 2023 (bottom left), and 4 October 2023 (bottom right). Although much of the crater was obscured by weather clouds on 7 May, a possible lava flow was visible in the NW part of the crater. Courtesy of Copernicus Browser.

Figure 97. Photo of intense nighttime crater incandescence at Nyamulagira as seen from Goma (27 km S) on the evening of 19 May 2023. Courtesy of Charles Balagizi, OVG.

Figure 98. Two strong sulfur dioxide plumes were detected at Nyamulagira and drifted W on 19 (left) and 20 (right) May 2023. Courtesy of NASA Global Sulfur Dioxide Monitoring Page.

Figure 99. A map (top) showing the active vents (yellow pins) and direction of active lava flows (W) at Nyamulagira at Virunga National Park on 20 May 2023. Drone footage (bottom) also shows the fresh lava flows traveling downslope to the W on 20 May 2023. Courtesy of USGS via OVG.

Low-level activity was noted during June through October. On 1 June OVG reported that seismicity remained at lower levels and that crater incandescence had been absent for three days, though infrared satellite imagery showed continued lava effusion in the summit crater. The lava flows on the flanks covered an estimated 0.6 km². Satellite imagery continued to show thermal activity confined to the lava lake through October (figure 96), although no lava flows or significant sulfur dioxide emissions were reported.

Geologic Background. Africa's most active volcano, Nyamulagira (also known as Nyamuragira), is a massive high-potassium basaltic shield about 25 km N of Lake Kivu and 13 km NNW of the steep-sided Nyiragongo volcano. The summit is truncated by a small 2 x 2.3 km caldera that has walls up to about 100 m high. Documented eruptions have occurred within the summit caldera, as well as from the numerous flank fissures and cinder cones. A lava lake in the summit crater, active since at least 1921, drained in 1938, at the time of a major flank eruption. Recent lava flows extend down the flanks more than 30 km from the summit as far as Lake Kivu; extensive lava flows from this volcano have covered 1,500 km2 of the western branch of the East African Rift.

Information Contacts: Observatoire Volcanologique de Goma (OVG), Departement de Geophysique, Centre de Recherche en Sciences Naturelles, Lwiro, D.S. Bukavu, DR Congo; Hawai'i Institute of Geophysics and Planetology (HIGP) - MODVOLC Thermal Alerts System, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST), Univ. of Hawai'i, 2525 Correa Road, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA (URL: http://modis.higp.hawaii.edu/); MIROVA (Middle InfraRed Observation of Volcanic Activity), a collaborative project between the Universities of Turin and Florence (Italy) supported by the Centre for Volcanic Risk of the Italian Civil Protection Department (URL: http://www.mirovaweb.it/); NASA Global Sulfur Dioxide Monitoring Page, Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA/GSFC), 8800 Greenbelt Road, Goddard, Maryland, USA (URL: https://so2.gsfc.nasa.gov/); Copernicus Browser, Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem, European Space Agency (URL: https://dataspace.copernicus.eu/browser/); Charles Balagizi, Goma Volcano Observatory, Departement de Geophysique, Centre de Recherche en Sciences Naturelles, Lwiro, D.S. Bukavu, DR Congo.

The remote volcano of Bagana is located in central Bougainville Island, Papua New Guinea. Recorded eruptions date back to 1842 and activity has consisted of effusive activity that has built a small lava dome in the summit crater and occasional explosions that produced pyroclastic flows. The most recent eruption has been ongoing since February 2000 and has produced occasional explosions, ash plumes, and lava flows. More recently, activity has been characterized by ongoing effusive activity and ash emissions (BGVN 48:04). This report updates activity from April through September 2023 that has consisted of explosions, ash plumes, ashfall, and lava flows, using information from the Darwin Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) and satellite data.

An explosive eruption was reported on 7 July that generated a large gas-and-ash plume to high altitudes and caused significant ashfall in local communities; the eruption plume had reached upper tropospheric (16-18 km altitude) altitudes by 2200, according to satellite images. Sulfur dioxide plumes were detected in satellite images on 8 July and indicated that the plume was likely a mixture of gas, ice, and ash. A report issued by the Autonomous Bougainville Government (ABG) (Torokina District, Education Section) on 10 July noted that significant ash began falling during 2000-2100 on 7 July and covered most areas in the Vuakovi, Gotana (9 km SW), Koromaketo, Laruma (25 km W) and Atsilima (27 km NW) villages. Pyroclastic flows also occurred, according to ground-based reports; small deposits confined to one drainage were inspected by RVO during an overflight on 17 July and were confirmed to be from the 7 July event. Ashfall continued until 10 July and covered vegetation, which destroyed bushes and gardens and contaminated rivers and streams.

RVO reported another eruption on 14 July. The Darwin VAAC stated that an explosive event started around 0830 on 15 July and produced an ash plume that rose to 16.5 km altitude by 1000 and drifted N, according to satellite images. The plume continued to drift N and remained visible through 1900, and by 2150 it had dissipated.

Ashfall likely from both the 7 and 15 July events impacted about 8,111 people in Torokina (20 km SW), including Tsito/Vuakovi, Gotana, Koromaketo, Kenaia, Longkogari, Kenbaki, Piva (13 km SW), and Atsinima, and in the Tsitovi district, according to ABG. Significant ashfall was also reported in Ruruvu (22 km N) in the Wakunai District of Central Bougainville, though the thickness of these deposits could not be confirmed. An evacuation was called for the villages in Wakunai, where heavy ashfall had contaminated water sources; the communities of Ruruvu, Togarau, Kakarapaia, Karauturi, Atao, and Kuritaturi were asked to evacuate to a disaster center at the Wakunai District Station, and communities in Torokina were asked to evacuate to the Piva District station. According to a news article, more than 7,000 people needed temporary accommodations, with about 1,000 people in evacuation shelters. Ashfall had deposited over a broad area, contaminating water supplies, affecting crops, and collapsing some roofs and houses in rural areas. Schools were temporarily shut down. Intermittent ash emissions continued through the end of July and drifted NNW, NW, and SW. Fine ashfall was reported on the coast of Torokina, and ash plumes also drifted toward Laruma and Atsilima.

A small explosive eruption occurred at 2130 on 28 July that ejected material from the crater vents, according to reports from Torokina, in addition to a lava flow that contained two lobes. A second explosion was detected at 2157. Incandescence from the lava flow was visible from Piva as it descended the W flank around 2000 on 29 July (figure 47). The Darwin VAAC reported that a strong thermal anomaly was visible in satellite images during 30-31 July and that ash emissions rose to 2.4 km altitude and drifted WSW on 30 July. A ground report from RVO described localized emissions at 0900 on 31 July.

Figure 47. Infrared (bands B12, B11, B4) satellite images showed weak thermal anomalies at the summit crater of Bagana on 12 April 2023 (top left), 27 May 2023 (top right), 31 July 2023 (bottom left), and 19 September 2023 (bottom right). A strong thermal anomaly was detected through weather clouds on 31 July and extended W from the summit crater. Courtesy of Copernicus Browser.

The Darwin VAAC reported that ash plumes were identified in satellite imagery at 0800 and 1220 on 12 August and rose to 2.1 km and 3 km altitude and drifted NW and W, respectively. A news report stated that aid was sent to more than 6,300 people that were adversely affected by the eruption. Photos taken during 17-19 August showed ash emissions rising no higher than 1 km above the summit and drifting SE. A small explosion generated an ash plume during the morning of 19 August. Deposits from small pyroclastic flows were also captured in the photos. Satellite images captured lava flows and pyroclastic flow deposits. Two temporary seismic stations were installed near Bagana on 17 August at distances of 7 km WSW (Vakovi station) and 11 km SW (Kepox station). The Kepox station immediately started to record continuous, low-frequency background seismicity.

Satellite data. Little to no thermal activity was detected during April through mid-July 2023; only one anomaly was recorded during early April and one during early June, according to MIROVA (Middle InfraRed Observation of Volcanic Activity) data (figure 48). Thermal activity increased in both power and frequency during mid-July through September, although there were still some short gaps in detected activity. MODVOLC also detected increased thermal activity during August; thermal hotspots were detected a total of five times on 19, 20, and 27 August. Weak thermal anomalies were also captured in infrared satellite images on clear weather days throughout the reporting period on 7, 12, and 17 April, 27 May, 1, 6, 16, and 31 July, and 19 September (figure 48); a strong thermal anomaly was visible on 31 July. Distinct sulfur dioxide plumes that drifted generally NW were intermittently captured by the TROPOMI instrument on the Sentinel-5P satellite and sometimes exceeded two Dobson Units (DUs) (figure 49).

Figure 48. Low thermal activity was detected at Bagana during April through mid-July 2023, as shown on this MIROVA graph. In mid-July, activity began to increase in both frequency and power, which continued through September. There were still some pauses in activity during late July, early August, and late September, but a cluster of thermal activity was detected during late August. Courtesy of MIROVA.

Figure 49. Distinct sulfur dioxide plumes rising from Bagana on 15 July 2023 (top left), 16 July 2023 (top right), 17 July 2023 (bottom left), and 17 August 2023 (bottom right). These plumes all generally drifted NW; a particularly notable plume exceeded 2 Dobson Units (DUs) on 15 July. Data is from the TROPOMI instrument on the Sentinel-5P satellite. Courtesy of NASA Global Sulfur Dioxide Monitoring Page.0

Geologic Background. Bagana volcano, in a remote portion of central Bougainville Island, is frequently active. This massive symmetrical cone was largely constructed by an accumulation of viscous andesitic lava flows. The entire edifice could have been constructed in about 300 years at its present rate of lava production. Eruptive activity is characterized by non-explosive effusion of viscous lava that maintains a small lava dome in the summit crater, although occasional explosive activity produces pyroclastic flows. Lava flows with tongue-shaped lobes up to 50 m thick and prominent levees descend the flanks on all sides.

Information Contacts: Rabaul Volcano Observatory (RVO), Geohazards Management Division, Department of Mineral Policy and Geohazards Management (DMPGM), PO Box 3386, Kokopo, East New Britain Province, Papua New Guinea; Darwin Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC), Bureau of Meteorology, Northern Territory Regional Office, PO Box 40050, Casuarina, NT 0811, Australia (URL: http://www.bom.gov.au/info/vaac/); MIROVA (Middle InfraRed Observation of Volcanic Activity), a collaborative project between the Universities of Turin and Florence (Italy) supported by the Centre for Volcanic Risk of the Italian Civil Protection Department (URL: http://www.mirovaweb.it/); Hawai'i Institute of Geophysics and Planetology (HIGP) - MODVOLC Thermal Alerts System, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST), Univ. of Hawai'i, 2525 Correa Road, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA (URL: http://modis.higp.hawaii.edu/); NASA Global Sulfur Dioxide Monitoring Page, Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA/GSFC), 8800 Greenbelt Road, Goddard, Maryland, USA (URL: https://so2.gsfc.nasa.gov/); Copernicus Browser, Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem, European Space Agency (URL: https://dataspace.copernicus.eu/browser/); Autonomous Bougainville Government, P.O Box 322, Buka, AROB, PNG (URL: https://abg.gov.pg/); Andrew Tupper (Twitter: @andrewcraigtupp); Simon Carn, Geological and Mining Engineering and Sciences, Michigan Technological University, 1400 Townsend Drive, Houghton, MI 49931, USA (URL: http://www.volcarno.com/, Twitter: @simoncarn); Radio NZ (URL: https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/pacific/494464/more-than-7-000-people-in-bougainville-need-temporary-accommodation-after-eruption); USAID, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave, NW, Washington DC 20004, USA (URL: https://www.usaid.gov/pacific-islands/press-releases/aug-08-2023-united-states-provides-immediate-emergency-assistance-support-communities-affected-mount-bagana-volcanic-eruptions).

Mayon is located in the Philippines and has steep upper slopes capped by a small summit crater. Historical eruptions date back to 1616 CE that have been characterized by Strombolian eruptions, lava flows, pyroclastic flows, and mudflows. Eruptions mostly originated from a central conduit. Pyroclastic flows and mudflows have commonly descended many of the approximately 40 drainages that surround the volcano. The most recent eruption occurred during June through October 2022 and consisted of lava dome growth and gas-and-steam emissions (BGVN 47:12). A new eruption was reported during late April 2023 and has included lava flows, pyroclastic density currents, ash emissions, and seismicity. This report covers activity during April through September 2023 based on daily bulletins from the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS).

During April through September 2023, PHIVOLCS reported near-daily rockfall events, frequent volcanic earthquakes, and sulfur dioxide measurements. Gas-and-steam emissions rose 100-900 m above the crater and drifted in different directions. Nighttime crater incandescence was often visible during clear weather and was accompanied by incandescent avalanches of material. Activity notably increased during June when lava flows were reported on the S, SE, and E flanks (figure 52). The MIROVA graph (Middle InfraRed Observation of Volcanic Activity) showed strong thermal activity coincident with these lava flows, which remained active through September (figure 53). According to the MODVOLC thermal algorithm, a total of 110 thermal alerts were detected during the reporting period: 17 during June, 40 during July, 27 during August, and 26 during September. During early June, pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) started to occur more frequently.

Figure 52. Infrared (bands B12, B11, B4) satellite images show strong lava flows descending the S, SE, and E flanks of Mayon on 13 June 2023 (top left), 23 June 2023 (top right), 8 July 2023 (bottom left), and 7 August 2023 (bottom right). Courtesy of Copernicus Browser.

Figure 53. Strong thermal activity was detected at Mayon during early June through September, according to this MIROVA graph (Log Radiative Power) due to the presence of active lava flows on the SE, S, and E flanks. Courtesy of MIROVA.

Low activity was reported during much of April and May; gas-and-steam emissions rose 100-900 m above the crater and generally drifted in different directions. A total of 52 rockfall events and 18 volcanic earthquakes were detected during April and 147 rockfall events and 13 volcanic events during May. Sulfur dioxide flux measurements ranged between 400-576 tons per day (t/d) during April, the latter of which was measured on 29 April and between 162-343 t/d during May, the latter of which was measured on 13 May.

Activity during June increased, characterized by lava flows, pyroclastic density currents (PDCs), crater incandescence and incandescent rockfall events, gas-and-steam emissions, and continued seismicity. Weather clouds often prevented clear views of the summit, but during clear days, moderate gas-and-steam emissions rose 100-2,500 m above the crater and drifted in multiple directions. A total of 6,237 rockfall events and 288 volcanic earthquakes were detected. The rockfall events often deposited material on the S and SE flanks within 700-1,500 m of the summit crater and ash from the events drifted SW, S, SE, NE, and E. Sulfur dioxide emissions ranged between 149-1,205 t/d, the latter of which was measured on 10 June. Short-term observations from EDM and electronic tiltmeter monitoring indicated that the upper slopes were inflating since February 2023. Longer-term ground deformation parameters based on EDM, precise leveling, continuous GPS, and electronic tilt monitoring indicated that the volcano remained inflated, especially on the NW and SE flanks. At 1000 on 5 June the Volcano Alert Level (VAL) was raised to 2 (on a 0-5 scale). PHIVOLCS noted that although low-level volcanic earthquakes, ground deformation, and volcanic gas emissions indicated unrest, the steep increase in rockfall frequency may indicate increased dome activity.

A total of 151 dome-collapse PDCs occurred during 8-9 and 11-30 June, traveled 500-2,000 m, and deposited material on the S flank within 2 km of the summit crater. During 8-9 June the VAL was raised to 3. At approximately 1947 on 11 June lava flow activity was reported; two lobes traveled within 500 m from the crater and deposited material on the S (Mi-isi), SE (Bonga), and E (Basud) flanks. Weak seismicity accompanied the lava flow and slight inflation on the upper flanks. This lava flow remained active through 30 June, moving down the S and SE flank as far as 2.5 km and 1.8 km, respectively and depositing material up to 3.3 km from the crater. During 15-16 June traces of ashfall from the PDCs were reported in Sitio Buga, Nabonton, City of Ligao and Purok, and San Francisco, Municipality of Guinobatan. During 28-29 June there were two PDCs generated by the collapse of the lava flow front, which generated a light-brown ash plume 1 km high. Satellite monitors detected significant concentrations of sulfur dioxide beginning on 29 June. On 30 June PDCs primarily affected the Basud Gully on the E flank, the largest of which occurred at 1301 and lasted eight minutes, based on the seismic record. Four PDCs generated between 1800 and 2000 that lasted approximately four minutes each traveled 3-4 km on the E flank and generated an ash plume that rose 1 km above the crater and drifted N and NW. Ashfall was recorded in Tabaco City.

Similar strong activity continued during July; slow lava effusion remained active on the S and SE flanks and traveled as far as 2.8 km and 2.8 km, respectively and material was deposited as far as 4 km from the crater. There was a total of 6,983 rockfall events and 189 PDCs that affected the S, SE, and E flanks. The volcano network detected a total of 2,124 volcanic earthquakes. Continuous gas-and-steam emissions rose 200-2,000 m above the crater and drifted in multiple directions. Sulfur dioxide emissions averaged 792-4,113 t/d, the latter of which was measured on 28 July. During 2-4 July three PDCs were generated from the collapse of the lava flow and resulting light brown plumes rose 200-300 m above the crater. Continuous tremor pulses were reported beginning at 1547 on 3 July through 7 July at 1200, at 2300 on 8 July and going through 0300 on 10 July, and at 2300 on 16 July, as recorded by the seismic network. During 6-9 July there were 10 lava flow-collapse-related PDCs that generated light brown plumes 300-500 m above the crater. During 10-11 July light ashfall was reported in some areas of Mabinit, Legazpi City, Budiao and Salvacion, Daraga, and Camalig, Albay. By 18 July the lava flow advanced 600 m on the E flank as well.

During 1733 on 18 July and 0434 on 19 July PHIVOLCS reported 30 “ashing” events, which are degassing events accompanied by audible thunder-like sounds and entrained ash at the crater, which produced short, dark plumes that drifted SW. These events each lasted 20-40 seconds, and plume heights ranged from 150-300 m above the crater, as recorded by seismic, infrasound, visual, and thermal monitors. Three more ashing events occurred during 19-20 July. Short-term observations from electronic tilt and GPS monitoring indicate deflation on the E lower flanks in early July and inflation on the NW middle flanks during the third week of July. Longer-term ground deformation parameters from EDM, precise leveling, continuous GPS, and electronic tilt monitoring indicated that the volcano was still generally inflated relative to baseline levels. A short-lived lava pulse lasted 28 seconds at 1956 on 21 July, which was accompanied by seismic and infrasound signals. By 22 July, the only lava flow that remained active was on the SE flank, and continued to extend 3.4 km, while those on the S and E flanks weakened markedly. One ashing event was detected during 30-31 July, whereas there were 57 detected during 31 July-1 August; according to PHIVOLCS beginning at approximately 1800 on 31 July eruptive activity was dominated by phases of intermittent ashing, as well as increased in the apparent rates of lava effusion from the summit crater. The ashing phases consisted of discrete events recorded as low-frequency volcanic earthquakes (LFVQ) typically 30 seconds in duration, based on seismic and infrasound signals. Gray ash plume rose 100 m above the crater and generally drifted NE. Shortly after these ashing events began, new lava began to effuse rapidly from the crater, feeding the established flowed on the SE, E, and E flanks and generating frequent rockfall events.

Intensified unrest persisted during August. There was a total of 4,141 rockfall events, 2,881 volcanic earthquakes, which included volcanic tremor events, 32 ashing events, and 101 PDCs detected throughout the month. On clear weather days, gas-and-steam emissions rose 300-1,500 m above the crater and drifted in different directions (figure 54). Sulfur dioxide emissions averaged 735-4,756 t/d, the higher value of which was measured on 16 August. During 1-2 August the rate of lava effusion decreased, but continued to feed the flows on the SE, S, and E flanks, maintaining their advances to 3.4 km, 2.8 km, and 1.1 km from the crater, respectively (figure 55). Rockfall and PDCs generated by collapses at the lava flow margins and from the summit dome deposited material within 4 km of the crater. During 3-4 August there were 10 tremor events detected that lasted 1-4 minutes. Short-lived lava pulse lasted 35 seconds and was accompanied by seismic and infrasound signals at 0442 on 6 August. Seven collapses were recorded at the front of the lava flow during 12-14 August.

Figure 54. Photo of Mayon showing a white gas-and-steam plume rising 800-1,500 m above the crater at 0645 on 25 August. Courtesy of William Rogers.

Figure 55. Photo of Mayon facing N showing incandescent lava flows and summit crater incandescence taken at 1830 on 25 August 2023. Courtesy of William Rogers.

During September, similar activity of slow lava effusion, PDCs, gas-and-steam emissions, and seismicity continued. There was a total of 4,452 rockfall events, 329 volcanic earthquakes, which included volcanic tremor events, two ashing events, and 85 PDCs recorded throughout the month. On clear weather days, gas-and-steam emissions rose 100-1,500 m above the crater and drifted in multiple directions. Sulfur dioxide emissions averaged 609-2,252 t/d, the higher average of which was measured on 6 September. Slow lava effusion continued advancing on the SE, S, and E flanks, maintaining lengths of 3.4 km, 2.8 km, and 1.1 km, respectively. Rockfall and PDC events generated by collapses along the lava flow margins and at the summit dome deposited material within 4 km of the crater.

Geologic Background. Symmetrical Mayon, which rises above the Albay Gulf NW of Legazpi City, is the most active volcano of the Philippines. The steep upper slopes are capped by a small summit crater. Recorded eruptions since 1616 CE range from Strombolian to basaltic Plinian, with cyclical activity beginning with basaltic eruptions, followed by longer periods of andesitic lava flows. Eruptions occur predominately from the central conduit and have also produced lava flows that travel far down the flanks. Pyroclastic density currents and mudflows have commonly swept down many of the approximately 40 ravines that radiate from the summit and have often damaged populated lowland areas. A violent eruption in 1814 killed more than 1,200 people and devastated several towns.

Information Contacts: Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS), Department of Science and Technology, University of the Philippines Campus, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines (URL: http://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/); MIROVA (Middle InfraRed Observation of Volcanic Activity), a collaborative project between the Universities of Turin and Florence (Italy) supported by the Centre for Volcanic Risk of the Italian Civil Protection Department (URL: http://www.mirovaweb.it/); Hawai'i Institute of Geophysics and Planetology (HIGP) - MODVOLC Thermal Alerts System, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST), Univ. of Hawai'i, 2525 Correa Road, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA (URL: http://modis.higp.hawaii.edu/); Copernicus Browser, Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem, European Space Agency (URL: https://dataspace.copernicus.eu/browser/); William Rogers, Legazpi City, Albay Province, Philippines.

Nishinoshima, located about 1,000 km S of Tokyo, is a small island in the Ogasawara Arc in Japan. The island is the summit of a massive submarine volcano that has prominent submarine peaks to the S, W, and NE. Eruptions date back to 1973 and the current eruption period began in October 2022. Recent activity has consisted of small ash plumes and fumarolic activity (BGVN 48:07). This report covers activity during May through August 2023, using information from monthly reports of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) monthly reports and satellite data.

Activity during May through June was relatively low. The Japan Coast Guard (JCG) did overflights on 14 and 22 June and reported white gas-and-steam emissions rising 600 m and 1,200 m from the central crater of the pyroclastic cone, respectively (figure 125). In addition, multiple white gas-and-steam emissions rose from the inner rim of the W side of the crater and from the SE flank of the pyroclastic cone. Discolored brown-to-green water was observed around almost the entire perimeter of the island; on 22 June light green discolored water was observed off the S coast of the island.

Figure 125. A white gas-and-steam plume rising 600 m above the crater of Nishinoshima at 1404 on 14 June 2023 (left) and 1,200 m above the crater at 1249 on 22 June 2023 (right). Courtesy of JCG via JMA (monthly reports of activity at Nishinoshima, June, 2023).

Observations from the Himawari meteorological satellite confirmed an eruption on 9 and 10 July. An eruption plume rose 1.6 km above the crater and drifted N around 1300 on 9 July. Satellite images acquired at 1420 and 2020 on 9 July and at 0220 on 10 July showed continuing emissions that rose 1.3-1.6 km above the crater and drifted NE and N. The Tokyo VAAC reported that an ash plume seen by a pilot and identified in a satellite image at 0630 on 21 July rose to 3 km altitude and drifted S.

Aerial observations conducted by JCG on 8 August showed a white-and-gray plume rising from the central crater of the pyroclastic cone, and multiple white gas-and-steam emissions were rising from the inner edge of the western crater and along the NW-SE flanks of the island (figure 126). Brown-to-green discolored water was also noted around the perimeter of the island.

Figure 126. Aerial photo of Nishinoshima showing a white-and-gray plume rising from the central crater taken at 1350 on 8 August 2023.

Intermittent low-to-moderate power thermal anomalies were recorded in the MIROVA graph (Middle InfraRed Observation of Volcanic Activity), showing an increase in both frequency and power beginning in July (figure 127). This increase in activity coincides with eruptive activity on 9 and 10 July, characterized by eruption plumes. According to the MODVOLC thermal alert algorithm, one thermal hotspot was recorded on 20 July. Weak thermal anomalies were also detected in infrared satellite imagery, accompanied by strong gas-and-steam plumes (figure 128).

Figure 127. Low-to-moderate power thermal anomalies were detected at Nishinoshima during May through August 2023, showing an increase in both frequency and power in July, according to this MIROVA graph (Log Radiative Power). Courtesy of MIROVA.

Figure 128. Infrared (bands B12, B11, B4) satellite images showing a small thermal anomaly at the crater of Nishinoshima on 30 June 2023 (top left), 3 July 2023 (top right), 7 August 2023 (bottom left), and 27 August 2023 (bottom right). Strong gas-and-steam plumes accompanied this activity, extending NW, NE, and SW. Courtesy of Copernicus Browser.

Geologic Background. The small island of Nishinoshima was enlarged when several new islands coalesced during an eruption in 1973-74. Multiple eruptions that began in 2013 completely covered the previous exposed surface and continued to enlarge the island. The island is the summit of a massive submarine volcano that has prominent peaks to the S, W, and NE. The summit of the southern cone rises to within 214 m of the ocean surface 9 km SSE.

Information Contacts: Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), 1-3-4 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8122, Japan (URL: http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/indexe.html); Tokyo Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC), 1-3-4 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8122, Japan (URL: http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/svd/vaac/data/); MIROVA (Middle InfraRed Observation of Volcanic Activity), a collaborative project between the Universities of Turin and Florence (Italy) supported by the Centre for Volcanic Risk of the Italian Civil Protection Department (URL: http://www.mirovaweb.it/); Copernicus Browser, Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem, European Space Agency (URL: https://dataspace.copernicus.eu/browser/).

Krakatau is located in the Sunda Strait between Java and Sumatra, Indonesia. Caldera collapse during the catastrophic 1883 eruption destroyed Danan and Perbuwatan cones and left only a remnant of Rakata. The post-collapse cone of Anak Krakatau (Child of Krakatau) was constructed within the 1883 caldera at a point between the former Danan and Perbuwatan cones; it has been the site of frequent eruptions since 1927. The current eruption period began in May 2021 and has recently consisted of Strombolian eruptions and ash plumes (BGVN 48:07). This report describes lower levels of activity consisting of ash and white gas-and-steam plumes during May through August 2023, based on information provided by the Indonesian Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation, referred to as Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG), MAGMA Indonesia, and satellite data.

Activity was relatively low during May and June. Daily white gas-and-steam emissions rose 25-200 m above the crater and drifted in different directions. Five ash plumes were detected at 0519 on 10 May, 1241 on 11 May, 0920 on 12 May, 2320 on 12 May, and at 0710 on 13 May, and rose 1-2.5 km above the crater and drifted SW. A webcam image taken on 12 May showed ejection of incandescent material above the vent. A total of nine ash plumes were detected during 6-11 June: at 1434 and 00220 on 6 and 7 June the ash plumes rose 500 m above the crater and drifted NW, at 1537 on 8 June the ash plume rose 1 km above the crater and drifted SW, at 0746 and at 0846 on 9 June the ash plumes rose 800 m and 3 km above the crater and drifted SW, respectively, at 0423, 1431, and 1750 on 10 June the ash plumes rose 2 km, 1.5 km, and 3.5 km above the crater and drifted NW, respectively, and at 0030 on 11 June an ash plume rose 2 km above the crater and drifted NW. Webcam images taken on 10 and 11 June at 0455 and 0102, respectively, showed incandescent material ejected above the vent. On 19 June an ash plume at 0822 rose 1.5 km above the crater and drifted SE.

Similar low activity of white gas-and-steam emissions and few ash plumes were reported during July and August. Daily white gas-and-steam emissions rose 25-300 m above the crater and drifted in multiple directions. Three ash plumes were reported at 0843, 0851, and 0852 on 20 July that rose 500-2,000 m above the crater and drifted NW.

The MIROVA (Middle InfraRed Observation of Volcanic Activity) graph of MODIS thermal anomaly data showed intermittent low-to-moderate power thermal anomalies during May through August 2023 (figure 140). Although activity was often obscured by weather clouds, a thermal anomaly was visible in an infrared satellite image of the crater on 12 May, accompanied by an eruption plume that drifted SW (figure 141).

Figure 140. Intermittent low-to-moderate power thermal anomalies were detected at Krakatau during May through August 2023, based on this MIROVA graph (Log Radiative Power). Courtesy of MIROVA.

Figure 141. A single thermal anomaly (bright yellow-orange) was visible at Krakatau in this infrared (bands B12, B11, B4) satellite image taken on 12 May 2023. An eruption plume accompanied the thermal anomaly and drifted SW. Courtesy of Copernicus Browser.

Geologic Background. The renowned Krakatau (frequently mis-named as Krakatoa) volcano lies in the Sunda Strait between Java and Sumatra. Collapse of an older edifice, perhaps in 416 or 535 CE, formed a 7-km-wide caldera. Remnants of that volcano are preserved in Verlaten and Lang Islands; subsequently the Rakata, Danan, and Perbuwatan cones were formed, coalescing to create the pre-1883 Krakatau Island. Caldera collapse during the catastrophic 1883 eruption destroyed Danan and Perbuwatan, and left only a remnant of Rakata. This eruption caused more than 36,000 fatalities, most as a result of tsunamis that swept the adjacent coastlines of Sumatra and Java. Pyroclastic surges traveled 40 km across the Sunda Strait and reached the Sumatra coast. After a quiescence of less than a half century, the post-collapse cone of Anak Krakatau (Child of Krakatau) was constructed within the 1883 caldera at a point between the former Danan and Perbuwatan cones. Anak Krakatau has been the site of frequent eruptions since 1927.

Information Contacts: Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG, also known as Indonesian Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation, CVGHM), Jalan Diponegoro 57, Bandung 40122, Indonesia (URL: http://www.vsi.esdm.go.id/); MAGMA Indonesia, Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (URL: https://magma.esdm.go.id/v1); MIROVA (Middle InfraRed Observation of Volcanic Activity), a collaborative project between the Universities of Turin and Florence (Italy) supported by the Centre for Volcanic Risk of the Italian Civil Protection Department (URL: http://www.mirovaweb.it/); Copernicus Browser, Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem, European Space Agency (URL: https://dataspace.copernicus.eu/browser/).

Merapi, located just north of the major city of Yogyakarta in central Java, Indonesia, has had activity within the last 20 years characterized by pyroclastic flows and lahars accompanying growth and collapse of the steep-sided active summit lava dome. The current eruption period began in late December 2020 and has more recently consisted of ash plumes, intermittent incandescent avalanches of material, and pyroclastic flows (BGVN 48:04). This report covers activity during April through September 2023, based on information from Balai Penyelidikan dan Pengembangan Teknologi Kebencanaan Geologi (BPPTKG), the Center for Research and Development of Geological Disaster Technology, a branch of PVMBG which specifically monitors Merapi. Additional information comes from the Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG, also known as Indonesian Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation, CVGHM), MAGMA Indonesia, the Darwin Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC), and various satellite data.

Activity during April through September 2023 primarily consisted of incandescent avalanches of material that mainly affected the SW and W flanks and traveled as far as 2.3 km from the summit (table 25) and white gas-and-steam emissions that rose 10-1,000 m above the crater.

Table 25. Monthly summary of avalanches and avalanche distances recorded at Merapi during April through September 2023. The number of reported avalanches does not include instances where possible avalanches were heard but could not be visually confirmed as a result of inclement weather. Data courtesy of BPPTKG (April-September 2023 daily reports).

BPPTKG reported that during April and May white gas-and-steam emissions rose 10-750 m above the crater, incandescent avalanches descended 500-2,000 m on the SW and W flanks (figure 135). Cloudy weather often prevented clear views of the summit, and sometimes avalanches could not be confirmed. According to a webcam image, a pyroclastic flow was visible on 17 April at 0531. During the week of 28 April and 4 May a pyroclastic flow was reported on the SW flank, traveling up to 2.5 km. According to a drone overflight taken on 17 May the SW lava dome volume was an estimated 2,372,800 cubic meters and the dome in the main crater was an estimated 2,337,300 cubic meters.

Figure 135. Photo showing an incandescent avalanche affecting the flank of Merapi on 8 April 2023. Courtesy of Øystein Lund Andersen.

During June and July similar activity persisted with white gas-and-steam emissions rising 10-350 m above the crater and frequent incandescent avalanches that traveled 300-2,000 m down the SW, W, and S flanks (figure 136). Based on an analysis of aerial photos taken on 24 June the volume of the SW lava dome was approximately 2.5 million cubic meters. A pyroclastic flow was observed on 5 July that traveled 2.7 km on the SW flank. According to the Darwin VAAC multiple minor ash plumes were identified in satellite images on 19 July that rose to 3.7 km altitude and drifted S and SW. During 22, 25, and 26 July a total of 17 avalanches descended as far as 1.8 km on the S flank.

Figure 136. Photo showing an incandescent avalanche descending the flank of Merapi on 23 July 2023. Courtesy of Øystein Lund Andersen.

Frequent white gas-and-steam emissions continued during August and September, rising 10-450 m above the crater. Incandescent avalanches mainly affected the SW and W flanks and traveled 400-2,300 m from the vent (figure 137). An aerial survey conducted on 10 August was analyzed and reported that estimates of the SW dome volume was 2,764,300 cubic meters and the dome in the main crater was 2,369,800 cubic meters.

Figure 137. Photo showing a strong incandescent avalanche descending the flank of Merapi on 23 September 2023. Courtesy of Øystein Lund Andersen.

Frequent and moderate-power thermal activity continued throughout the reporting period, according to a MIROVA (Middle InfraRed Observation of Volcanic Activity) analysis of MODIS satellite data (figure 138). There was an increase in the number of detected anomalies during mid-May. The MODVOLC thermal algorithm recorded a total of 47 thermal hotspots: six during April, nine during May, eight during June, 15 during July, four during August, and five during September. Some of this activity was captured in infrared satellite imagery on clear weather days, sometimes accompanied by incandescent material on the SW flank (figure 139).

Figure 138. Frequent and moderate-power thermal anomalies were detected at Merapi during April through September 2023, as shown on this MIROVA plot (Log Radiative Power). There was an increase in the number of anomalies recorded during mid-May. Courtesy of MIROVA.

Figure 139. Infrared (bands B12, B11, B4) satellite images showed a consistent thermal anomaly (bright yellow-orange) at the summit crater of Merapi on 8 April 2023 (top left), 18 May 2023 (top right), 17 June 2023 (middle left), 17 July 2023 (middle right), 11 August 2023 (bottom left), and 20 September 2023 (bottom right). Incandescent material was occasionally visible descending the SW flank, as shown in each of these images. Courtesy of Copernicus Browser.

Geologic Background. Merapi, one of Indonesia's most active volcanoes, lies in one of the world's most densely populated areas and dominates the landscape immediately north of the major city of Yogyakarta. It is the youngest and southernmost of a volcanic chain extending NNW to Ungaran volcano. Growth of Old Merapi during the Pleistocene ended with major edifice collapse perhaps about 2,000 years ago, leaving a large arcuate scarp cutting the eroded older Batulawang volcano. Subsequent growth of the steep-sided Young Merapi edifice, its upper part unvegetated due to frequent activity, began SW of the earlier collapse scarp. Pyroclastic flows and lahars accompanying growth and collapse of the steep-sided active summit lava dome have devastated cultivated lands on the western-to-southern flanks and caused many fatalities.

Information Contacts: Balai Penyelidikan dan Pengembangan Teknologi Kebencanaan Geologi (BPPTKG), Center for Research and Development of Geological Disaster Technology (URL: http://merapi.bgl.esdm.go.id/, Twitter: @BPPTKG); MAGMA Indonesia, Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (URL: https://magma.esdm.go.id/v1); Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG, also known as Indonesian Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation, CVGHM), Jalan Diponegoro 57, Bandung 40122, Indonesia (URL: http://www.vsi.esdm.go.id/); Darwin Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC), Bureau of Meteorology, Northern Territory Regional Office, PO Box 40050, Casuarina, NT 0811, Australia (URL: http://www.bom.gov.au/info/vaac/); MIROVA (Middle InfraRed Observation of Volcanic Activity), a collaborative project between the Universities of Turin and Florence (Italy) supported by the Centre for Volcanic Risk of the Italian Civil Protection Department (URL: http://www.mirovaweb.it/); Hawai'i Institute of Geophysics and Planetology (HIGP) - MODVOLC Thermal Alerts System, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST), Univ. of Hawai'i, 2525 Correa Road, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA (URL: http://modis.higp.hawaii.edu/); Copernicus Browser, Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem, European Space Agency (URL: https://dataspace.copernicus.eu/browser/); Øystein Lund Andersen (URL: https://www.oysteinlundandersen.com/, https://twitter.com/oysteinvolcano).

Villarrica, in central Chile, consists of a 2-km-wide caldera that formed about 3,500 years ago and is located at the base of the presently active cone at the NW margin of a 6-km-wide caldera. Historical eruptions eruptions date back to 1558 and have been characterized by mild-to-moderate explosive activity with occasional lava effusions. The current eruption period began in December 2014 and has recently consisted of nighttime crater incandescence, ash emissions, and seismicity (BGVN 48:04). This report covers activity during April through September 2023 and describes occasional Strombolian activity, gas-and-ash emissions, and nighttime crater incandescence. Information for this report primarily comes from the Southern Andes Volcano Observatory (Observatorio Volcanológico de Los Andes del Sur, OVDAS), part of Chile's National Service of Geology and Mining (Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería, SERNAGEOMIN) and satellite data.

Seismicity during April consisted of long period (LP) events and tremor (TRE); a total of 9,413 LP-type events and 759 TR-type events were detected throughout the month. Nighttime crater incandescence persisted and was visible in the degassing column. Sulfur dioxide data was obtained using Differential Absorption Optical Spectroscopy Equipment (DOAS) that showed an average value of 1,450 ± 198 tons per day (t/d) during 1-15 April and 1,129 ± 201 t/d during 16-30 April, with a maximum daily value of 2,784 t/d on 9 April. Gas-and-steam emissions of variable intensities rose above the active crater as high as 1.3 km above the crater on 13 April. Strombolian explosions were not observed and there was a slight decrease in the lava lake level.

There were 14,123 LP-type events and 727 TR-type events detected during May. According to sulfur dioxide measurements taken with DOAS equipment, the active crater emitted an average value of 1,826 ± 482 t/d during 1-15 May and 912 ± 41 t/d during 16-30 May, with a daily maximum value of 5,155 t/d on 13 May. Surveillance cameras showed continuous white gas-and-steam emissions that rose as high as 430 m above the crater on 27 May. Nighttime incandescence illuminated the gas column less than 300 m above the crater rim was and no pyroclastic emissions were reported. A landslide was identified on 13 May on the E flank of the volcano 50 m from the crater rim and extending 300 m away; SERNAGEOMIN noted that this event may have occurred on 12 May. During the morning of 27 and 28 May minor Strombolian explosions characterized by incandescent ejecta were recorded at the crater rim; the last reported Strombolian explosions had occurred at the end of March.

Seismic activity during June consisted of five volcano-tectonic (VT)-type events, 21,606 LP-type events, and 2,085 TR-type events. The average value of sulfur dioxide flux obtained by DOAS equipment was 1,420 ± 217 t/d during 1-15 June and 2,562 ± 804 t/d, with a maximum daily value of 4,810 t/d on 17 June. White gas-and-steam emissions rose less than 480 m above the crater; frequent nighttime crater incandescence was reflected in the degassing plume. On 12 June an emission rose 100 m above the crater and drifted NNW. On 15 June one or several emissions resulted in ashfall to the NE as far as 5.5 km from the crater, based on a Skysat satellite image. Several Strombolian explosions occurred within the crater; activity on 15 June was higher energy and ejected blocks 200-300 m on the NE slope. Surveillance cameras showed white gas-and-steam emissions rising 480 m above the crater on 16 June. On 19 and 24 June low-intensity Strombolian activity was observed, ejecting material as far as 200 m from the center of the crater to the E.

During July, seismicity included 29,319 LP-type events, 3,736 TR-type events, and two VT-type events. DOAS equipment recorded two days of sulfur dioxide emissions of 4,220 t/d and 1,009 t/d on 1 and 13 July, respectively. Constant nighttime incandescence was also recorded and was particularly noticeable when accompanied by eruptive columns on 12 and 16 July. Minor explosive events were detected in the crater. According to Skysat satellite images taken on 12, 13, and 16 July, ashfall deposits were identified 155 m S of the crater. According to POVI, incandescence was visible from two vents on the crater floor around 0336 on 12 July. Gas-and-ash emissions rose as high as 1.2 km above the crater on 13 July and drifted E and NW. A series of gas-and-steam pulses containing some ash deposited material on the upper E flank around 1551 on 13 July. During 16-31 July, average sulfur dioxide emissions of 1,679 ± 406 t/d were recorded, with a maximum daily value of 2,343 t/d on 28 July. Fine ash emissions were also reported on 16, 17, and 23 July.

Seismicity persisted during August, characterized by 27,011 LP-type events, 3,323 TR-type events, and three VT-type events. The average value of sulfur dioxide measurements taken during 1-15 August was 1,642 ± 270 t/d and 2,207 ± 4,549 t/d during 16-31 August, with a maximum daily value of 3,294 t/d on 27 August. Nighttime crater incandescence remained visible in degassing columns. White gas-and-steam emissions rose 480 m above the crater on 6 August. According to a Skysat satellite image from 6 August, ash accumulation was observed proximal to the crater and was mainly distributed toward the E slope. White gas-and-steam emissions rose 320 m above the crater on 26 August. Nighttime incandescence and Strombolian activity that generated ash emissions were reported on 27 August.

Seismicity during September was characterized by five VT-type events, 12,057 LP-type events, and 2,058 TR-type events. Nighttime incandescence persisted. On 2 September an ash emission rose 180 m above the crater and drifted SE at 1643 (figure 125) and a white gas-and-steam plume rose 320 m above the crater. According to the Buenos Aires VAAC, periods of continuous gas-and-ash emissions were visible in webcam images from 1830 on 2 September to 0110 on 3 September. Strombolian activity was observed on 2 September and during the early morning of 3 September, the latter event of which generated an ash emission that rose 60 m above the crater and drifted 100 m from the center of the crater to the NE and SW. Ashfall was reported to the SE and S as far as 750 m from the crater. The lava lake was active during 3-4 September and lava fountaining was visible for the first time since 26 March 2023, according to POVI. Fountains captured in webcam images at 2133 on 3 September and at 0054 on 4 September rose as high as 60 m above the crater rim and ejected material onto the upper W flank. Sulfur dioxide flux of 1,730 t/d and 1,281 t/d was measured on 3 and 4 September, respectively, according to data obtained by DOAS equipment.

Figure 125. Webcam image of a gray ash emission rising above Villarrica on 2 September 2023 at 1643 (local time) that rose 180 m above the crater and drifted SE. Courtesy of SERNAGEOMIN (Reporte Especial de Actividad Volcanica (REAV), Region De La Araucania y Los Rios, Volcan Villarrica, 02 de septiembre de 2023, 17:05 Hora local).

Strong Strombolian activity and larger gas-and-ash plumes were reported during 18-20 September. On 18 September activity was also associated with energetic LP-type events and notable sulfur dioxide fluxes (as high as 4,277 t/d). On 19 September Strombolian activity and incandescence were observed. On 20 September at 0914 ash emissions rose 50 m above the crater and drifted SSE, accompanied by Strombolian activity that ejected material less than 100 m SSE, causing fall deposits on that respective flank. SERNAGEOMIN reported that a Planet Scope satellite image taken on 20 September showed the lava lake in the crater, measuring 32 m x 35 m and an area of 0.001 km². Several ash emissions were recorded at 0841, 0910, 1251, 1306, 1312, 1315, and 1324 on 23 September and rose less than 150 m above the crater. The sulfur dioxide flux value was 698 t/d on 23 September and 1,097 t/d on 24 September. On 24 September the Volcanic Alert Level (VAL) was raised to Orange (the third level on a four-color scale). SENAPRED maintained the Alert Level at Yellow (the middle level on a three-color scale) for the communities of Villarrica, Pucón (16 km N), Curarrehue, and Panguipulli.

During 24-25 September there was an increase in seismic energy (observed at TR-events) and acoustic signals, characterized by 1 VT-type event, 213 LP-type events, and 124 TR-type events. Mainly white gas-and-steam emissions, in addition to occasional fine ash emissions were recorded. During the early morning of 25 September Strombolian explosions were reported and ejected material 250 m in all directions, though dominantly toward the NW. On 25 September the average value of sulfur dioxide flux was 760 t/d. Seismicity during 25-30 September consisted of five VT-type events, 1,937 LP-type events, and 456 TR-type events.

During 25-29 September moderate Strombolian activity was observed and ejected material as far as the crater rim. In addition, ash pulses lasting roughly 50 minutes were observed around 0700 and dispersed ENE. During 26-27 September a TR episode lasted 6.5 hours and was accompanied by discrete acoustic signals. Satellite images from 26 September showed a spatter cone on the crater floor with one vent that measured 10 x 14 m and a smaller vent about 35 m NE of the cone. SERNAGEOMIN reported an abundant number of bomb-sized blocks up to 150 m from the crater, as well as impact marks on the snow, which indicated explosive activity. A low-altitude ash emission was observed drifting NW around 1140 on 28 September, based on webcam images. Between 0620 and 0850 on 29 September an ash emission rose 60 m above the crater and drifted NW. During an overflight taken around 1000 on 29 September scientists observed molten material in the vent, a large accumulation of pyroclasts inside the crater, and energetic degassing, some of which contained a small amount of ash. Block-sized pyroclasts were deposited on the internal walls and near the crater, and a distal ash deposit was also visible. The average sulfur dioxide flux measured on 28 September was 344 t/d. Satellite images taken on 29 September ashfall was deposited roughly 3 km WNW from the crater and nighttime crater incandescence remained visible. The average sulfur dioxide flux value from 29 September was 199 t/d. On 30 September at 0740 a pulsating ash emission rose 1.1 km above the crater and drifted NNW (figure 126). Deposits on the S flank extended as far as 4.5 km from the crater rim, based on satellite images from 30 September.

Figure 126. Webcam image of a gray ash plume rising 1.1 km above the crater of Villarrica at 0740 (local time) on 30 September 2023. Courtesy of SERNAGEOMIN (Reporte Especial de Actividad Volcanica (REAV), Region De La Araucania y Los Rios, Volcan Villarrica, 30 de septiembre de 2023, 09:30 Hora local).

Infrared MODIS satellite data processed by MIROVA (Middle InfraRed Observation of Volcanic Activity) showed intermittent thermal activity during April through September, with slightly stronger activity detected during late September (figure 127). Small clusters of thermal activity were detected during mid-June, early July, early August, and late September. According to the MODVOLC thermal alert system, a total of four thermal hotspots were detected on 7 July and 3 and 23 September. This activity was also intermittently captured in infrared satellite imagery on clear weather days (figure 128).

Figure 127. Low-to-moderate power thermal anomalies were detected at Villarrica during April through September 2023, according to this MIROVA graph (Log Radiative Power). Activity was relatively low during April through mid-June. Small clusters of activity occurred during mid-June, early July, early August, and late September. Courtesy of MIROVA.

Figure 128. Consistent bright thermal anomalies (bright yellow-orange) were visible at the summit crater of Villarrica in infrared (bands B12, B11, B4) satellite images, as shown on 17 June 2023 (top left), 17 July 2023 (top right), 6 August 2023 (bottom left), and 20 September 2023 (bottom right). Courtesy of Copernicus Browser.

Geologic Background. The glacier-covered Villarrica stratovolcano, in the northern Lakes District of central Chile, is ~15 km south of the city of Pucon. A 2-km-wide caldera that formed about 3,500 years ago is located at the base of the presently active, dominantly basaltic to basaltic andesite cone at the NW margin of a 6-km-wide Pleistocene caldera. More than 30 scoria cones and fissure vents are present on the flanks. Plinian eruptions and pyroclastic flows that have extended up to 20 km from the volcano were produced during the Holocene. Lava flows up to 18 km long have issued from summit and flank vents. Eruptions documented since 1558 CE have consisted largely of mild-to-moderate explosive activity with occasional lava effusion. Glaciers cover 40 km2 of the volcano, and lahars have damaged towns on its flanks.

Information Contacts: Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería (SERNAGEOMIN), Observatorio Volcanológico de Los Andes del Sur (OVDAS), Avda Sta María No. 0104, Santiago, Chile (URL: http://www.sernageomin.cl/); Proyecto Observación Villarrica Internet (POVI) (URL: http://www.povi.cl/); Sistema y Servicio Nacional de Prevención y Repuesta Ante Desastres (SENAPRED), Av. Beauchef 1671, Santiago, Chile (URL: https://web.senapred.cl/); Buenos Aires Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC), Servicio Meteorológico Nacional-Fuerza Aérea Argentina, 25 de mayo 658, Buenos Aires, Argentina (URL: http://www.smn.gov.ar/vaac/buenosaires/inicio.php); MIROVA (Middle InfraRed Observation of Volcanic Activity), a collaborative project between the Universities of Turin and Florence (Italy) supported by the Centre for Volcanic Risk of the Italian Civil Protection Department (URL: http://www.mirovaweb.it/); Hawai'i Institute of Geophysics and Planetology (HIGP) - MODVOLC Thermal Alerts System, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST), Univ. of Hawai'i, 2525 Correa Road, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA (URL: http://modis.higp.hawaii.edu/); Copernicus Browser, Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem, European Space Agency (URL: https://dataspace.copernicus.eu/browser/).

Ebeko, located on the N end of Paramushir Island in Russia’s Kuril Islands just S of the Kamchatka Peninsula, consists of three summit craters along a SSW-NNE line at the northern end of a complex of five volcanic cones. Observed eruptions date back to the late 18th century and have been characterized as small-to-moderate explosions from the summit crater, accompanied by intense fumarolic activity. The current eruptive period began in June 2022, consisting of frequent explosions, ash plumes, and thermal activity (BGVN 47:10, 48:06). This report covers similar activity during June-November 2023, based on information from the Kamchatka Volcanic Eruptions Response Team (KVERT) and satellite data.

Moderate explosive activity continued during June-November 2023 (figures 50 and 51). According to visual data from Severo-Kurilsk, explosions sent ash 2-3.5 km above the summit (3-4.5 km altitude) during most days during June through mid-September. Activity after mid-September was slightly weaker, with ash usually reaching less than 2 km above the summit. According to KVERT the volcano in October and November was, with a few exceptions, either quiet or obscured by clouds that prevented satellite observations. KVERT issued Volcano Observatory Notices for Aviation (VONA) on 8 and 12 June, 13 and 22 July, 3 and 21 August, and 31 October warning of potential aviation hazards from ash plumes drifting 3-15 km from the volcano. Based on satellite data, KVERT reported a persistent thermal anomaly whenever weather clouds permitted viewing.

Figure 50. Ash explosion from the active summit crater of Ebeko on 18 July 2023; view is approximately towards the W. Photo provided by I. Bolshakov and M.V. Lomonosov MGU; courtesy of KVERT.

Figure 51. Ash explosion from the active summit crater of Ebeko on 23 July 2023 with lightning visible in the lower part of the plume. Photo provided by I. Bolshakov and M.V. Lomonosov MGU; courtesy of KVERT.

Geologic Background. The flat-topped summit of the central cone of Ebeko volcano, one of the most active in the Kuril Islands, occupies the northern end of Paramushir Island. Three summit craters located along a SSW-NNE line form Ebeko volcano proper, at the northern end of a complex of five volcanic cones. Blocky lava flows extend west from Ebeko and SE from the neighboring Nezametnyi cone. The eastern part of the southern crater contains strong solfataras and a large boiling spring. The central crater is filled by a lake about 20 m deep whose shores are lined with steaming solfataras; the northern crater lies across a narrow, low barrier from the central crater and contains a small, cold crescentic lake. Historical activity, recorded since the late-18th century, has been restricted to small-to-moderate explosive eruptions from the summit craters. Intense fumarolic activity occurs in the summit craters, on the outer flanks of the cone, and in lateral explosion craters.

Information Contacts: Kamchatka Volcanic Eruptions Response Team (KVERT), Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, 9 Piip Blvd., Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, 683006, Russia (URL: http://www.kscnet.ru/ivs/kvert/).

Frequent plumes (including 15 April and 9 July ash clouds to 3.0 km above the volcano), a new intracrater cone, and a 1.3-km-long lava flow were seen during 1 January-9 July 2002 (BGVN 27:03 and 27:06). This report first highlights events described in 10 July-September 2002 updates. During this interval Karymsky produced 3-km-tall plumes, restless seismicity, and three new lava flows. Next, a separate section of this report presents photos of Karymsky and adjacent Akademia Nauk caldera taken in September 2000 and in May 2002. This report also cites a fundamental reference volume on the topic of the 1996 eruption, Fedotov (1998), which includes a preface and ten papers.

Activity during 10 July-September 2002. Seismicity during this interval generally stood well above background levels, very often at a value of ~10 earthquakes per hour. During nearly every week of the reporting interval, geophysicists suggested that the character of the seismicity might indicate weak ash-and-gas explosions and avalanches. Weak thermal anomalies were often observed on AVHRR satellite imagery and, in the majority of cases, no ash was detected. In contrast, satellite imagery on 25 July indicated a possible, small, SW-directed ash plume. On 26 July, a thermal anomaly reached 2 pixels in size.

During 27 July-2 August, local, shallow seismic events decreased, dropping from 250 to 150 events per day. During 30 August-6 September and 13-24 September there were 200-300 local shallow earthquakes occurring per day (compared to 150-250 per day in August). In early September estimates suggested that explosions rose ~1 km above the summit.

Observations on 8 September revealed three new small lava flows on the volcano's S and SE slopes. On satellite imagery a thermal anomaly was visible but ash was not. The character of the seismicity indicated ash-and-gas explosions rising ~1 km above the volcano and gas blow-outs. On 16 September at 1217 a short-lived explosion created an ash-and-gas plume; observers on an aircraft aloft estimated the plume top's height at ~3 km altitude.

Photographs and brief retrospective on the 1996 eruption. Figures 10 and 11 provide overviews of the Karymsky stratovolcano (also written as Pra-Karymsky) and adjacent areas to the S on 26 September 2000 and 10 May 2002 respectively. Both these aerial photos were provided by Victor Ivanov (Russian Academy of Sciences). The former was taken ~4 years after the complex 1996 eruption (see BGVN 21:01-21:03 and 21:05; and Fedotov, 1998).

Figure 10. An aerial photo taken on 26 September 2000 looking towards the SSE and showing Karymsky stratovolcano (cone on the right), the low-lying portion of Akademia Nauk caldera containing Karymsky lake (in the upper center of the photo), Karymsky river (bright, light-colored zone cutting diagonally across the center and left), and Belyankin volcano (arc-shaped, in the upper-right corner). Prominent cliffs, part of the N-facing amphitheater of Dvor volcano, curve across the terrain well outboard of the stratovolcano (lower left-hand margin). The Karymsky river drains the lake from an outlet at the head of a conspicuous bay. The distance from the cone's summit to the lake's nearest margin is ~ 5 km. Courtesy of Victor Ivanov.

Figure 11. An aerial photo with Karymsky stratovolcano in the foreground, shot looking towards the S on 10 May 2002. Snow blankets considerable areas and ice covers Karymsky lake. During 1996-2000 many lava flows covered the stratovolcano's SW slope. On 10 May there were fresh andesitic lavas descending the W flank reaching ~ 1.3 km in length and ~ 300 m in maximum width (labeled "2002 lavas" and "Front"). Haze in this photo is partly due to erupted ash suspended in the atmosphere. A separate photo the same day captured Karymsky with a billowing, light-colored plume (figure 9 above). Courtesy of Victor Ivanov.

In overview, that eruption consisted of a 1 January 1996 earthquake swarm (with events to M 6.9) followed a day later with simultaneous eruptions from two vents 6 km apart, one at the stratovolcano's summit, the other at Akademia Nauk caldera in the N end of Karymsky lake. The latter consisted of a submarine phreatomagmatic eruption that deposited a low conical ring composed of pyroclastics. The subaerial portion of those deposits encircled the vent forming a ~600-m-wide crater in the cone's center. The cone also extended to the lake shore, thus forming a peninsula. The eruptive event included or was associated with base surges, tsunamis, surface ruptures, and secondary eruptions on the new peninsula. The eruption also left the lake with pH of 3.2 and its outlet into the Karymsky river obstructed by the new deposits. Several months later the new deposits eroded, resulting in massive mudflows down the Karymsky river. At the submarine vent eruptive products were predominantly basaltic; some fine ash was andesitic; late-stage rhyolites occasionally formed inclusions within basalts and bombs with basaltic jackets.

The photos were taken from perspectives on the volcano's N side. Several months after the dam-breaking event, the partly eroded pyroclastic deposits took the form of a squat U-shaped peninsula with two arms extending hundreds of meters into the lake. The circular segment along the middle of the peninsula's shoreline is part of the original cone's arcuate rim. Towards the left of the peninsula lies a conspicuous bay that leads to the outflow channel and the Karymsky river (the latter is most apparent on figure 10). Figure 11 shows that two years later the pyroclastic deposits in the lake more closely resemble lines rather than broad zones due to the partial cover of ice and snow.

The 1996 eruption at Karymsky and the Akademia Nauk caldera may have been a response to the injection of fresh basaltic magma from a deeper magmatic source. Later stages of the eruption at Karymsky have continued more than 6 years through this reporting interval.

During the underwater eruption in 1996 all of the lake's ice was broken and melted. Along the lake shore many new hot springs appeared. After the underwater eruption on the bottom of the lake many sources of heat and degassing appeared. The eruption triggered an ecological catastrophe during which all fish in the lake died.

During the winter 1996-1997 the water of the lake remained warm and devoid of ice. Usually ice completely disappears only in June or July. Lake ice returned in subsequent winters. Figure 10 (26 September 2000) shows light-colored patterns on the lake's surface that signify the presence of local ice accumulating there with the approach of winter. Figure 11 documents the dominance of ice on Karymsky lake's surface, still intact from the previous winter when photographed. The May 2002 lake surface also contained some ice-free zones. Their presence suggested the continued existence of post-eruptive heat sources on the lake bottom. These areas were possibly rich in algae and micro-organisms.

Reference. S. A. Fedotov, S.A., 1998, The 1996 eruption in the Karymsky volcanic center and related events: Special issue of Volcanology and Seismology, v. 19, no. 5, p. 521-767 (L.N. Rykunov, Ed. in Chief; Preface and 10 papers; English translation), Gordon & Breach Science Publishers (ISBN 0742-0463).

Geologic Background. Karymsky, the most active volcano of Kamchatka's eastern volcanic zone, is a symmetrical stratovolcano constructed within a 5-km-wide caldera that formed during the early Holocene. The caldera cuts the south side of the Pleistocene Dvor volcano and is located outside the north margin of the large mid-Pleistocene Polovinka caldera, which contains the smaller Akademia Nauk and Odnoboky calderas. Most seismicity preceding Karymsky eruptions originated beneath Akademia Nauk caldera, located immediately south. The caldera enclosing Karymsky formed about 7600-7700 radiocarbon years ago; construction of the stratovolcano began about 2000 years later. The latest eruptive period began about 500 years ago, following a 2300-year quiescence. Much of the cone is mantled by lava flows less than 200 years old. Historical eruptions have been vulcanian or vulcanian-strombolian with moderate explosive activity and occasional lava flows from the summit crater.

Information Contacts: Olga Chubarova, Kamchatka Volcanic Eruptions Response Team (KVERT), Institute of Volcanic Geology and Geochemistry, Piip Ave. 9, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, 683006, Russia; Victor Ivanov, Institute of Volcanology Far East Division, Russian Academy of Sciences, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, 683006, Russia.

A thick white plume reached 25 m above the summit several times during October through December 2001. During 27 August 2001 through 16 September 2001 at Krakatau, available seismic data were dominated by explosions and shallow volcanic earthquakes (table 1). The seismograph broke on 16 September 2001 but was repaired by 26 August 2002, when it showed a slight increase over the previous interval when data were available. No surface activity accompanied the increased seismicity. Volcanic events decreased during early September. The volcano remained at Alert Level 2 through at least 8 September.

Table 1. Earthquakes registered at Krakatau during 27 August 2001 through 8 September 2002. The seismic system was down during 16 September 2001-25 August 2002. Courtesy of VSI.

Geologic Background. The renowned Krakatau (frequently mis-named as Krakatoa) volcano lies in the Sunda Strait between Java and Sumatra. Collapse of an older edifice, perhaps in 416 or 535 CE, formed a 7-km-wide caldera. Remnants of that volcano are preserved in Verlaten and Lang Islands; subsequently the Rakata, Danan, and Perbuwatan cones were formed, coalescing to create the pre-1883 Krakatau Island. Caldera collapse during the catastrophic 1883 eruption destroyed Danan and Perbuwatan, and left only a remnant of Rakata. This eruption caused more than 36,000 fatalities, most as a result of tsunamis that swept the adjacent coastlines of Sumatra and Java. Pyroclastic surges traveled 40 km across the Sunda Strait and reached the Sumatra coast. After a quiescence of less than a half century, the post-collapse cone of Anak Krakatau (Child of Krakatau) was constructed within the 1883 caldera at a point between the former Danan and Perbuwatan cones. Anak Krakatau has been the site of frequent eruptions since 1927.

Information Contacts: Volcanological Survey of Indonesia (VSI), Jalan Diponegoro No. 57, Bandung 40122, Indonesia (URL: http://www.vsi.esdm.go.id/).

Mauna Loa is the southern-most volcano on the island of Hawaii. Following the last eruption of Mauna Loa, during March-April 1984 (SEAN 09:03), there have been several periods of inflation and deflation at the volcano's summit caldera, Moku`aweoweo. As of September 2002, Mauna Loa has remained non-eruptive (figure 14) for 18.5 years. The pattern of deformation at Moku`aweoweo abruptly changed in mid-May 2002 from deflation to inflation, lasting until at least September 2002. An archive of deformation and seismic data from Mauna Loa dating back to the 1970s provides an example of the volcano's pre-eruptive and precursory behavior.

Figure 14. Oblique shaded-relief map (N at top) showing the location of the city of Hilo and the five volcanoes that built the island of Hawaii. The young growing submarine volcano Lōʻihi is not shown. When including the submarine portions of Hawaii attributed to Mauna Loa, it ranks as Earth's largest active volcano, encompassing 51 percent of the island's surface area and comprising a volume over ~ 65,000 km3. Courtesy HVO.

After the last Bulletin report about Mauna Loa in July 1991(BGVN 16:07) the volcano's summit continued to gradually inflate as it had since the 1984 eruption. This trend reversed in 1993-1994 when distances across the caldera shortened by as much as 7 cm, and leveling surveys in 1996 and 2000 measured more than 7 cm of subsidence SE of the caldera.

Beginning on 24 April 2002 at 0645 a notable cluster of deep earthquakes (darkest circles in figure 15) occurred in a 52-hour period. The earthquakes ended on 26 April at 1045. Many of the epicenters plotted within or close to the caldera's SW margin. The earthquakes ranged in depth from 26 to 43 km and in magnitude from 1.1 to 1.7. Several shallow earthquakes preceded this cluster; the largest, a magnitude 2.5 event on 21 April at 1931, was located ~3 km beneath the SW rift zone. After the cluster, several deep long-period events were recorded beneath the SW rift zone. At that time data from the continuous tiltmeter, dilatometer, and nearly continuous global positioning system (GPS) stations failed to suggest significant deformation of Moku`aweoweo caldera, upper-rift zones, or outer flanks.

Figure 15. Plot showing the magnitudes, locations, and depths of earthquakes registered at Mauna Loa during 7 April- 26 September 2002. Following the swarm of deep earthquakes during 24-26 April (dark circles), seismicity was somewhat elevated.

Inflation. HVO maintains several continuously recording GPS stations installed in 1999 (figure 16). Beginning in late April or early May 2002, deformation data began to show signs of renewed activity.

Figure 16. Map showing the several GPS stations HVO maintains on Mauna Loa as of September 2002. HVO plans to install several additional stations (white dots), on indefinite loan from Stanford University. Courtesy HVO.

Figure 17 shows the change in distance between MOKP and MLSP GPS stations, located on opposite sides of Moku`aweoweo. The increased distance between the two stations was interpreted to represent inflation of the summit magma reservoir, centered ~5 km below the caldera. The small amount of extension marks a noticeable change from the pattern of deflation during the preceding 9 years. GPS measurements also revealed that the summit area had inflated about 2 cm, consistent with swelling.

Figure 17. Graph showing the change in distance between GPS stations MOKP and MLSP, located on opposite sides of Moku'aweoweo caldera, as seen during 4 October 2000-30 September 2002. Distance across Moku'aweoweo began to increase by 5-6 cm/year starting in late April-May 2002. Courtesy HVO.

The switch from slow deflation to more rapid inflation occurred around 12 May. GPS data indicated lengthening at a rate of 5-6 cm per year. Therefore, as of 26 September the caldera had widened about 2 cm since 12 May. Measurements at GPS stations farther out on the flanks showed that swelling occurred at more than the summit, in particular, the upper part of the SE flank was moving outward.

In order to test the precision of the GPS measurements, HVO compared the GPS data against dry-tilt method data at the summit, an independent means to measure ground deformation using land-surveying instruments, deployed at regularly visited stations. These confirmed the GPS results, though with less precision.

Electronic-tiltmeter data obtained at the Moku'aweoweo tiltmeter were also analyzed for changes in tilt direction. No significant volcanic tilt was recorded that deviated from the diurnal signal corresponding to daily temperature fluctuations, or an annual signal corresponding to seasonal temperature changes.

During the inflationary period, seismicity at Mauna Loa was at a somewhat elevated level following the 24-26 April earthquake cluster. But, it remained far lower than it was the months prior to the 1975 and 1984 eruptions.

May-September 2002 unrest in comparison to activity since 1974. For Mauna Loa these data sets are available: electric distance meter (EDM) measurements since about 1975, GPS observations since 1999, dry-tilt observations since 1975, and seismicity since 1974. The capability to detect unrest at Mauna Loa has increased in the past few years with the installation of many new, continuously recording electronic tiltmeters, GPS receivers, and strainmeters (figure 18).

Figure 18. Map showing locations of continuously recording instruments for measuring deformation and seismicity at Mauna Loa as of September 2002. This map omits many additional benchmarks used in various deformation surveys. Courtesy HVO.

Figure 19 shows the distance measured across Moku`aweoweo caldera between MOKP and MSLP benchmarks by EDM during 1975 to September 2002, and by GPS beginning in 1999. Abrupt extensions associated with the 1975 and 1984 eruptions were caused by the rise of magma from the summit reservoir to the surface. During the 1984 eruption, the summit area subsided rapidly as lava erupted. When the eruption stopped, the summit reservoir again began to inflate in response to the influx of magma, as indicated by the increasing distance between the two benchmarks until about1993. Inflation did not occur again until early May 2002 when the slow contraction across the summit changed abruptly to extension. This extension rate is the highest since immediately after the 1984 eruption.

Figure 19. The change in distances across Moku`aweoweo caldera at Mauna Loa, between MOKP and MSLP benchmarks (see map inset) as measured by electronic distance meter since about 1975 to September 2002 and by GPS receivers since 1999. Note the abrupt change from contraction to extension in May 2002. Courtesy HVO.

GPS measurements have only been made at Mauna Loa since 1999, but in that relatively short time an abrupt change in ground movement has been recorded (figure 20). Measurements made during January 1999-May 2002 show small velocities of ground displacement towards the SW. In contrast, during May-September 2002 the direction of ground motion changed from a fairly uniform, southeastward movement to a predominately radial pattern. In addition, the rate of ground motion increased by 5 to 10 times.

Figure 20. Velocities of ground displacement measured by GPS stations on Mauna Loa during 1999 to 12 May 2002 (light lines) and 12 May to 21 September 2002 (black lines). The arrows represent the speed and direction of motion. The tips of the arrows representing the actual motion point lie somewhere within the uncertainty ellipses. Courtesy HVO.

Ground tilt away from the caldera occurs when magma accumulates beneath the surface. Although electronic measurements provide much more precise readings, the dry-tilt method remains in use at HVO after 35 years for several reasons. First, the measurements can be made nearly anywhere at any time. Second, they are not subject to long-term instrument drift. Lastly, they provide an independent corroboration of measurements made by more sophisticated modern instruments. Dry-tilt measurements revealed the following: inflation between the 1975 and 1984 eruptions (figure 21a), inflation after the 1984 eruption, continuing until 1993 (figure 21b), and deflation from 1993 through March (probably May) 2002 (figure 21c). After March (probably May), the tilt returned to an inflationary pattern (figure 21d). The most recent pattern of inflation is based on only two sets of measurements, and the tilt varies, with some smaller arrows pointing inward, so it is much less certain than the past patterns. Still, the radial pattern strongly suggests that inflation is occurring.

Figure 21. Rates of ground tilt measured in the summit region of Mauna Loa during 1975 to September 2002. Arrows point in the direction of downward tilt rate of the ground surface; arrow lengths show the amount of tilt in microradians (note scale bars). A) inflation during 1975-1984, between the last two eruptions at Mauna Loa; b) inflation after the 1984 eruption to 1993; c) deflation during 1993 to March (probably May) 2002; and d) a general return to inflation until at least September 2002. Courtesy HVO.

HVO's telemetered seismographic network recorded significant changes in seismicity before the Mauna Loa eruptions in 1975 and 1984 (figure 22). The short-term forecasts of these eruptions were based in large part on precursory activity. Both eruptions were preceded by an increase in earthquakes at intermediate depths NE of Moku`aweoweo, and then by an increase in shallower earthquakes beneath Mauna Loa's summit. From the 1984 eruption until late April 2002, approximately 30 earthquakes were located per year beneath Mauna Loa's summit and upper flanks. Rates of seismicity moderately increased beginning in late April 2002, particularly at depths greater than 15 km (figure 22d). As of 29 September 2002, 100 earthquakes were recorded in 2002 below the summit and upper flanks of the volcano, 83 of which occurred after mid-April. This rate is markedly higher than those of previous years, but it is still well below the rates seen prior to the last two eruptions. Before an eruption becomes imminent, HVO scientists expect that rates of shallow seismicity will elevate to levels much higher than those observed in late September 2002.

Figure 22. Monthly earthquakes (bars, scales at left) and cumulative numbers of located earthquakes (curves, scales at right), separated into three depth ranges, within or beneath Mauna Loa between 1974 and 29 September 2002. The earthquakes shown occurred beneath Mauna Loa's summit and upper flanks and had magnitudes greater than 1.0. Part "a" shows all earthquakes; "b", shallow earthquakes (0 to 5 km deep); "c", intermediate earthquakes (5 to 15 km deep); and "d", deep earthquakes (greater than 15 km deep). Courtesy HVO.

References. Moore J G, Clague D A, Holcomb R T, Lipman P W, Normark W R, Torresan M E, 1989. Prodigous submarine landslides on the Hawaiian Ridge. J Geophys Res, 94: 17,465-17,484; Lockwood J P, Lipman P W, 1987. Holocene eruptive history of Mauna Loa volcano. U S Geol Surv Prof Pap, 1350: 509-535.

Geologic Background. Massive Mauna Loa is a basaltic shield volcano that rises almost 9 km from the ocean floor to form the world's largest Holocene volcano. Flank eruptions typically occur from the lengthy NE and SW rift zones, and from the Moku'aweoweo summit is caldera, which is within an older and larger 6 x 8 km caldera. Two of the youngest large debris avalanches documented in Hawaii traveled nearly 100 km from Mauna Loa; the second of the Alika avalanches was emplaced about 105,000 years ago (Moore et al., 1989). Almost 90% of the surface of the volcano is covered by lavas less than 4,000 years old (Lockwood and Lipman, 1987). Beginning about 1,500 years ago, a series of voluminous overflows from a summit lava lake covered about 25% of the volcano's surface. Over the last 750 years, from shortly after the formation of Moku'aweoweo caldera until the present, an additional 25% of the volcano has been covered with lava flows, mainly from summit and NW rift zone vents.

Information Contacts: Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO), U.S. Geological Survey, PO Box 51, Hawaii National Park, HI 96718, USA (URL: https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/).

During 17 July-1 September, seismicity at Merapi was dominated by avalanche earthquakes. SO₂ emissions varied, and generally white, thin, low-pressure plumes rose up to 550 m above the summit. Glowing avalanches traveled 2.6 km, moving towards headwaters of the Sat, Lamat, Senowo, and Bebeng rivers (table 16). On 2 July two pyroclastic flows traveled 0.5 km toward the upstream of the Sat river. One low-frequency earthquake occurred during late August. The temperature of Gendol crater was 734-755°C, and the Woro crater was 418-435°C. Merapi remained at Alert Level 2.

Table 16. Seismicity, SO₂ emissions, plume and lava-avalanche observations at Merapi during 17 June-1 September 2002. Courtesy VSI.

Geologic Background. Merapi, one of Indonesia's most active volcanoes, lies in one of the world's most densely populated areas and dominates the landscape immediately north of the major city of Yogyakarta. It is the youngest and southernmost of a volcanic chain extending NNW to Ungaran volcano. Growth of Old Merapi during the Pleistocene ended with major edifice collapse perhaps about 2,000 years ago, leaving a large arcuate scarp cutting the eroded older Batulawang volcano. Subsequent growth of the steep-sided Young Merapi edifice, its upper part unvegetated due to frequent activity, began SW of the earlier collapse scarp. Pyroclastic flows and lahars accompanying growth and collapse of the steep-sided active summit lava dome have devastated cultivated lands on the western-to-southern flanks and caused many fatalities.

Information Contacts: Volcanological Survey of Indonesia (VSI), Jalan Diponegoro No. 57, Bandung 40122, Indonesia (URL: http://www.vsi.esdm.go.id/).

During 17 June-8 September, activity at Semeru was higher than normal. Seismicity was dominated by explosion and avalanche earthquakes. Volcanic and tectonic earthquakes also occurred, along with occasional tremor episodes (table 9). During June and July, and on 6 August, when fog did not obscure the view, observers reported that lava avalanches traveled toward Besuk Kembar river at distances of ~750 m from the crater rim. At times during July explosions produced white ash plumes that reached 300-500 m above the crater. During mid-August to early September, a white-gray ash plume rose 400-500 m above the crater. On 8 September at 1947 an ash explosion ejected glowing material ~150 m toward the upper stream of Besuk Kembar river. Semeru remained at Alert Level 2.

Table 9. Earthquakes and tremor registered at Semeru during 17 June-8 September 2002. Courtesy VSI.

Geologic Background. Semeru, the highest volcano on Java, and one of its most active, lies at the southern end of a volcanic massif extending north to the Tengger caldera. The steep-sided volcano, also referred to as Mahameru (Great Mountain), rises above coastal plains to the south. Gunung Semeru was constructed south of the overlapping Ajek-ajek and Jambangan calderas. A line of lake-filled maars was constructed along a N-S trend cutting through the summit, and cinder cones and lava domes occupy the eastern and NE flanks. Summit topography is complicated by the shifting of craters from NW to SE. Frequent 19th and 20th century eruptions were dominated by small-to-moderate explosions from the summit crater, with occasional lava flows and larger explosive eruptions accompanied by pyroclastic flows that have reached the lower flanks of the volcano.

Information Contacts: Volcanological Survey of Indonesia (VSI), Jalan Diponegoro No. 57, Bandung 40122, Indonesia (URL: http://www.vsi.esdm.go.id/).

Last discussed through May 2002 (BGVN 27:05), Shiveluch went on to display mostly mild eruptive activity, punctuated by occasional larger outbursts, during the interval from mid-June through early October 2002. During this reporting period, a lava dome continued to grow in the active crater, both ash-bearing and dominantly gas emissions occurred, and seismicity remained above background levels. Plumes reached up to 7 km above the lava dome (table 3). Earthquakes reached up to M 2.7 at depths of 0-10 km. Other local shallow seismic signals occurred that indicated possible weak gas-and-ash explosions and avalanches. Episodes of weak spasmodic tremor were registered. Thermal anomalies were visible on AVHRR satellite imagery throughout the report period (table 4) but no ash was detected in any image.

Table 3. Plumes reported at Shiveluch during 14 June-11 October 2002. All visual observations and recordings were made from Klyuchi town. Cloudy weather prevented observations on some days. Courtesy KVERT.

Table 4. Thermal anomalies recognized in AVHRR satellite imagery at Shiveluch during 14 June-11 October 2002. On some days, clouds obscured the view or there were no passes over the volcano. Unless noted, all images came from the AVHRR satellite. Courtesy KVERT.

The Level of Concern Code was Yellow ("volcano is restless") throughout the reporting period, except for a few days starting 30 July and again early in August when Code Orange ("volcano is in eruption or eruption may occur at any time") was declared.

Summary of recent activity. Except when the summit was obscured by clouds, ash-and-gas or gas-and-steam plumes were seen visually almost daily (table 3). These plumes, frequently accompanied by short-lived explosions and avalanches, typically rose 1-3 km above the summit with occasional plumes rising as high as 7-10 km.

Similarly, satellite imagery (principally AVHRR) reported significant thermal anomalies on an almost daily basis with an extent of several (1-6) pixels, reaching maximum, band-3 temperatures of 20-49°C and frequently associated with steam or aerosol plumes, some extending over 100 km from the volcano.

From mid-June to late-July, numerous earthquakes were recorded, typically M 1.7 to 2.4 and several reaching M 2.7. At 2000 on 29 July, four earthquakes (M 2.1-2.3) occurred and the intensity of volcanic tremor increased noticeably in comparison with the previous days. The following day (30 July), the Level of Concern was raised from Yellow to Orange, but it returned to Yellow when the tremor amplitude decreased over the following two days. However, the activity level increased again during subsequent days and the level was raised again to Orange.

During 12-16 August, about 10 earthquakes of magnitude 1.7-2.4 occurred. Along with smaller earthquakes and many other local seismic signals, these probably indicated ash and gas explosions (at a rate of 1-3 a day, to heights of 1500-2500 m above the dome). However, the Level of Concern was returned to Yellow by the end of the week.

Through the remainder of the period, many earthquakes up to M 2.7 occurred, frequent gas-and-steam plumes rose as high as 5 km above the dome, and thermal anomalies of 6-8 pixels were observed as were gas/steam plumes that extended 80-120 km. On 25 September, continuous spasmodic tremor prevailed for 27 minutes.

Geologic Background. The high, isolated massif of Sheveluch volcano (also spelled Shiveluch) rises above the lowlands NNE of the Kliuchevskaya volcano group. The 1,300 km3 andesitic volcano is one of Kamchatka's largest and most active volcanic structures, with at least 60 large eruptions during the Holocene. The summit of roughly 65,000-year-old Stary Shiveluch is truncated by a broad 9-km-wide late-Pleistocene caldera breached to the south. Many lava domes occur on its outer flanks. The Molodoy Shiveluch lava dome complex was constructed during the Holocene within the large open caldera; Holocene lava dome extrusion also took place on the flanks of Stary Shiveluch. Widespread tephra layers from these eruptions have provided valuable time markers for dating volcanic events in Kamchatka. Frequent collapses of dome complexes, most recently in 1964, have produced debris avalanches whose deposits cover much of the floor of the breached caldera.

Information Contacts: Olga Chubarova, Kamchatka Volcanic Eruptions Response Team (KVERT), Institute of Volcanic Geology and Geochemistry, Piip Ave. 9, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, 683006, Russia; Tom Miller and Dave Schneider, Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO), a cooperative program of a) U.S. Geological Survey, 4200 University Drive, Anchorage, AK 99508-4667, USA, b) Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, PO Box 757320, Fairbanks, AK 99775-7320, USA, and c) Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys, 794 University Ave., Suite 200, Fairbanks, AK 99709, USA (URL: http://www.avo.alaska.edu/).

The Montserrat Volcano Observatory (MVO) reported that during mid-May through mid-September 2002, seismicity at Soufrière Hills was dominated by rockfall signals. Four volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes were reported during the first week of June and nine during the week of 9-16 August. SO₂ emission rates were measured using Differential Optical Absorption Spectrometers (DOAS). SO₂ fluxes generally remained at moderate levels. High fluxes occurred at times, such as during rockfall activity on 12 August (up to 690 t/day). On 6 September SO₂ emissions were low at 42-170 t/day, although levels increased to 170-518 t/day through 13 September (table 41).

Table 41. Seismicity at Soufrière Hills during 10 May-13 September 2002. "--" indicates that the information was not reported. Courtesy MVO.

During mid-May, growth of the summit lava dome continued to be concentrated on the E flank, giving rise to numerous rockfalls and small pyroclastic flows in the upper reached of the Tar River Valley. Pyroclastic flows were observed moving NE in the uppermost part of Tuitt's Ghaut during an observation flight on the morning of May 13. This was the first indication that pyroclastic flows generated on the NE flank of the active dome were able to flow into this drainage system. This new direction of flow was possible after the 29 July collapse scar had become largely buried on this side of the dome. The summit region of the active dome was visible briefly on several occasions during late May. It had a broad blocky appearance, and growth seemed to have become concentrated on the SE, giving rise to rockfalls and small pyroclastic flows on the SE flank of the dome. There was little activity on the NE flank of the dome during the last week of May.

Very clear conditions during 31 May-3 June provided the first good views of the summit region for several months, revealing that since early April a large lobe had been extruded on the dome's upper SE side. The lobe was ~150 m across and reached 1,023 m altitude. The upper surface of the lobe had a spiny though slab-like appearance. Since the dome was last seen, it had developed a small lobe-like protrusion on the summit's W side. Minor June rockfalls occurred on the dome's E and W sectors.

During mid-June, although the dome was mostly covered by clouds, photos of the summit area were captured on many days by the remote digital camera at White's Yard. Despite the low level of rockfall and seismic activity, the massive extrusion lobe on the SE side of the dome continued to grow steadily. Most of the upper surface of the active lobe had the smooth form of a whale's back; it also contained a low-angle spine directed upwards towards the SE. The free face at the front of the lobe on the SE side was steep and blocky in appearance. A theodolite survey of the dome taken during a brief period of clear weather on 11 June measured these altitudes: the general summit area of the active lobe stood at 1,025-1,030 m, and the top of the spine, at 1,048 m.

Rockfall activity increased abruptly on the night of 14 June and remained moderately high until the 18th, when it declined once more. Rockfalls and small pyroclastic flows were produced by material collapsing off the E face of the dome. Several small pyroclastic flows were also produced on the NE flank and were observed flowing into the upper part of Tuitt's Ghaut. By late June, growth of the extrusion lobe on the SE side of the dome appeared to have stagnated. Rockfall activity decreased abruptly on the afternoon of 22 June and declined to very low levels during 25-28 June.

No change in dome morphology occurred during early to mid-July. Rockfall activity on the dome increased slightly on the morning of 3 July, and a small, low ash cloud drifted over Plymouth around 1000. This followed several hours of heavy rain during the night, which was associated with substantial mudflows in the center of Plymouth. Rockfalls increased slightly during 6-8 July, before decreasing to very low levels through 12 July.

Observations of the dome on 15 July suggested that dome growth was continuing at a very low rate. Growth was concentrated on the SE part of the dome, at the lobe that was active during mid- to late June. The level of rockfall activity from this active lobe increased slightly on 15 July, with a small pyroclastic flow at 0800 directed down the Tar River Valley.

A swarm of low-amplitude long-period (LP) earthquakes began on 19 July and increased in strength during the following four days. The swarm continued at an elevated level until it began to decrease slightly during 31 July-2 August.

Observations of the dome on 21 July indicated that significant growth had recommenced, with the extrusion of a new lobe on the NE side of the summit region. Growth of the new extrusion lobe gave rise to rockfalls and small pyroclastic flows off the NE flank of the dome. On the morning of 23 July a minor collapse produced small but continuous pyroclastic flows for about an hour. These mainly flowed into the upper parts of Tuitt's Ghaut and down White's Ghaut for about half the distance to the coast. A few also flowed into the upper part of the Tar River Valley. A similar event, lasting for ~20 minutes, occurred in the early hours on the morning of 26 July.

On the morning of 1 August observations revealed that the new extrusion lobe on the N side of the summit had a broad whaleback form. Growth of this lobe was directed N and, around 2-4 August, the lobe crumbled repeatedly, producing rockfalls and small pyroclastic flows in Tuitt's Ghaut. Limited activity occurred on the NW part of the dome, although one small pyroclastic flow descended the notch between the central and NW buttresses. Individual rocks also reached upper Tyre's Ghaut (behind Gage's Mountain). During 6-9 August, rockfall activity declined substantially due to the lobe becoming more coherent and not collapsing. By mid-August, talus had accumulated in the upper reaches of Tuitt's Ghaut and small pyroclastic flows occurred in both Tuitt's and White's Ghauts. The active lobe also shed more talus into the notch in the NW sector of the old dome, which leads towards Tyre's Ghaut.

Rockfall talus continued to accumulate in the upper reaches of Tuitt's Ghaut during 16-23 August, and there were overspills of talus from the N side of the Tar River Valley into the two tributaries of White's Ghaut. The NE buttress, a remnant of the old dome complex from mid-1997, was now completely buried. Erosion of the E edge of the central buttress continued. Talus continued to slowly accumulate in the notch in the NW sector of the old dome, which leads towards Tyre's Ghaut. During intense rainfall early on 21 August, a small collapse occurred in the Tar River Valley of the talus that had accumulated on the SE sector of the dome during April-May 2002.

During late August, small pyroclastic flows were mainly concentrated on the NE flank where they had been channeled into the upper reaches of Tuitt's Ghaut; although some had spilled eastwards along the N side of the Tar River Valley. Talus also continued to accumulate in the notch in the NW sector of the old dome, which leads towards Tyre's Ghaut. Torrential rainfall produced mudflows in the Belham Valley in the early hours of 28 August.

During early September, growth continued to be focused on the N side of the dome complex although it had become more centralized and the summit height now exceeded 1,050 m. Otherwise the focus of activity remained concentrated on the NE flank, with frequent rockfalls and small pyroclastic flows. Most of these were channeled into the upper reaches of Tuitt's Ghaut; although some had spilled eastwards along the N side of the Tar River Valley.

During mid-September, dome growth remained centralized, and the summit height exceeded 1,050 m. Otherwise the focus of activity remained concentrated on the E flank, with frequent rockfalls and small pyroclastic flows. Around 6-8 September most of these spilled eastwards along the N side of the Tar River Valley, although by 12-13 September activity appears to have refocused northwards onto Tuitt's Ghaut, with subordinate amounts continuing to spill eastwards into the Tar River Valley.

During the reporting interval, the daytime entry zone (DTEZ) remained open, weather permitting. MVO warned that activity could increase suddenly, with dangerous situations developing quickly. Protective masks were to be worn in ashy conditions and the Belham Valley was to be avoided during and after heavy rainfall due to the possibility of mudflows. Access was prohibited to Plymouth, Bramble airport, and points closer to the volcano; including a marine exclusion zone around the southern part of the island ~3 km beyond the coastline, extending from Trant's Bay in the E to Garibaldi Hill on the W.

Geologic Background. The complex, dominantly andesitic Soufrière Hills volcano occupies the southern half of the island of Montserrat. The summit area consists primarily of a series of lava domes emplaced along an ESE-trending zone. The volcano is flanked by Pleistocene complexes to the north and south. English's Crater, a 1-km-wide crater breached widely to the east by edifice collapse, was formed about 2000 years ago as a result of the youngest of several collapse events producing submarine debris-avalanche deposits. Block-and-ash flow and surge deposits associated with dome growth predominate in flank deposits, including those from an eruption that likely preceded the 1632 CE settlement of the island, allowing cultivation on recently devegetated land to near the summit. Non-eruptive seismic swarms occurred at 30-year intervals in the 20th century, but no historical eruptions were recorded until 1995. Long-term small-to-moderate ash eruptions beginning in that year were later accompanied by lava-dome growth and pyroclastic flows that forced evacuation of the southern half of the island and ultimately destroyed the capital city of Plymouth, causing major social and economic disruption.

Information Contacts: Montserrat Volcano Observatory (MVO), Mongo Hill, Montserrat, West Indies (URL: http://www.mvo.ms/); Washington Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC), Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB), NOAA/NESDIS E/SP23, NOAA Science Center Room 401, 5200 Auth Road, Camp Springs, MD 20746, USA (URL: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/).

During 17 June-28 July 2002 at Talang a generally white, thin plume rose 25-100 m above the crater and drifted E. [Throughout July the activity was described as a "white-thin ash plume."] Hot spring temperatures ranged from 43 to 64°C. No seismic data were available because of a broken seismograph. Talang remained at Alert Level 2.

Geologic Background. Talang, which forms a twin volcano with the extinct Pasar Arbaa volcano, lies ESE of the major city of Padang and rises NW of Dibawah Lake. Talang has two crater lakes on its flanks; the largest of these is 1 x 2 km wide Danau Talang. The summit exhibits fumarolic activity, but which lacks a crater. Historical eruptions have mostly involved small-to-moderate explosive activity first documented in the 19th century that originated from a series of small craters in a valley on the upper NE flank.

Information Contacts: Volcanological Survey of Indonesia (VSI), Jalan Diponegoro No. 57, Bandung 40122, Indonesia (URL: http://www.vsi.esdm.go.id/).

The Volcanological Survey of Indonesia (VSI) reported that Tangkubanparahu reactivated during late August 2002. On 2 September the Alert Level was raised to 2, following an elevated number of earthquakes that were registered during the previous two weeks. The temperatures of Domas and Ratu craters increased ~2-4°C; Domas crater was at 74-93°C and Ratu crater at 95-100°C. No visual changes accompanied the temperature increase inside the craters, but several animals were found dead in Ratu crater. Seismicity totals for the week of 26 August-1 September were three deep-volcanic (A-type), 172 shallow-volcanic (B-type), and 12 tectonic earthquakes. During 2-8 September, four A-type, 224 B-type, and two tectonic earthquakes were registered.

Geologic Background. Gunung Tangkuban Parahu is a broad stratovolcano overlooking Indonesia's former capital city of Bandung. The volcano was constructed within the 6 x 8 km Pleistocene Sunda caldera, which formed about 190,000 years ago. The volcano's low profile is the subject of legends referring to the mountain of the "upturned boat." The Sunda caldera rim forms a prominent ridge on the western side; elsewhere the rim is largely buried by deposits of the current volcano. The dominantly small phreatic eruptions recorded since the 19th century have originated from several nested craters within an elliptical 1 x 1.5 km summit depression.

Information Contacts: Volcanological Survey of Indonesia (VSI), Jalan Diponegoro No. 57, Bandung 40122, Indonesia (URL: http://www.vsi.esdm.go.id/).

The eruption that began at Pago on 3 August with significant ash plumes (BGVN 27:07) had produced lava flows from multiple vents NW of the main crater by early September (BGVN 27:08). This report provides additional details of fieldwork by the Japanese Disaster Relief Team noted in the last issue. Varied information from a United Nations report on 27 September has been distributed into appropriate sections below.

Observations of recent activity. The United Nations reported on 27 September that the volcano continued to emit steam and a thin vapor plume from vents near the summit and that the plume drifted to the NW over the Hoskins Peninsula. Lava continued to flow into the wider Witori Caldera basin, but was contained by its wall. Low-level seismicity and slow ground deformation along the W part of the caldera floor also continued. Monitoring about 3 km SW of the summit has shown a slight uplift.

While enroute from Kavieng to Port Moresby, Dave Innes (acting First Officer of an Air Niugini Fokker F-28, Captain Alex Porter in command) photographed Pago around 1230 on 14 September from an altitude of about 8.5 km (28,000 feet) while the volcano was quiet (figure 5). Later in the month Innes noted that the volcano had been putting out little more than "smoke," but on the 30th he and Captain Seymour (another Air Niugini F-28 commander) put in an "ash-sighting chit" when they saw that it was fairly active. He reports that the "smoke" stayed over the whole center section of the N coast of New Britain through to the following day (1 October).

Figure 5. Aerial photograph of Pago around 1230 on 14 September 2002. Dark lava flows can be seen extending NNW from the crater towards the upper center of the view. The lighter-colored fan-shaped area in the center (N of the crater) is most likely ash-covered vegetation; previous ash plumes blew in that direction. Courtesy of David Innes, Air Niugini.

The "ash-sighting chit" noted by Innes is an internal Air Niugini Volcanic Volcanic Activity Report. This is a company variation of the ICAO VAR (section one) which is separate from the formal reporting process. Crews transitting known hot-spots fill out the form, rip off the white copy (which looks like a receipt or "chit" ), and put it in a box at crewing in Port Moresby. Pilots arriving to commence flights can then see what their colleagues had seen the last time someone passed that way.

Volcano monitoring. As noted in the UN report, the assistance of technical teams from Japan and the United States was achieved through the efforts of the Rabaul Volcanological Observatory from East New Britain, which is overseeing scientific efforts. The government of Papua New Guinea (PNG) has set up a Kimbe Volcanological Observatory to coordinate the scientific work on Pago, and ultimately to monitor and evaluate the threat posed by West New Britain's three other active volcanoes.

Installing a volcanic monitoring system on Pago had been long-planned as part of a cooperative program between the U.S. Geological Survey's Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP), with funding from the Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, and Geoscience Australia to provide assistance to PNG. However, the current eruption accelerated those plans. On 5 September, at the invitation of the PNG government a 3-person team from VDAP departed the United States with equipment for a telemetered monitoring network consisting of five seismometers (one 3-component instrument) and three real-time GPS stations. The network was installed with the assistance of personnel from the Rabaul Volcano Observatory, and the VDAP team returned on 13 October after the network was operational and sending telemetered data to the observatory in Kimbe.

Civil Defence. The following information is from a situation report issued by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) on 27 September. This report was based on information provided by OCHA's Regional Disaster Response Adviser in Kimbe, working alongside the PNG National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) and the AusAID team that is supporting the West New Britain Provincial Disaster Committee.

Of the 15,000 inhabitants of the affected part of the Hoskins Peninsula, the region close to the crater and in the arc to the NW, ~13,000 have been evacuated since early August; the remainder are still living in their villages, looking after property, and engaged in limited cultivation.

Although only a few millimeters of ash has fallen even in the worst affected areas, it is a fine volcanic ash with high silica content, which poses a serious hazard to aviation. Hoskins Airport has therefore been closed since early August, shutting off the direct link to Port Moresby and the flow of tourists that helps support the provincial economy. It is only possible to reach Kimbe by sea, or by light aircraft to Bialla and then three hours drive along the rough coast road, only passable in the dry season.

Current understanding of the risk is based on incomplete scientific evidence, and it will be at least 3 months before sufficient data can be gathered and analyzed to enable a decent hazard assessment. Consequently the Provincial Disaster Committee (PDC) has not permitted the permanent return of the evacuees to their villages. The lack of cheap transport also restricts such activities and would complicate and delay any larger scale evacuation if this became necessary. The seasonal shift in the prevailing winds during October will place another 8,000-9,000 people at risk in any future ash ejection.

National and provincial disaster managers are preparing contingency plans for three possible scenarios. The first scenario is that eruptive activity continues as at present through the wet season, with ashfall affecting a further 8,000 people; the second is that it becomes more explosive with pyroclastic flows impacting an area up to 15 km from the volcano; the worst case scenario is a caldera-forming eruption, potentially affecting up to 30,000 people within a 30 km radius.

Observations during 25 August-3 September made by the Japanese Team. The Japanese Disaster Relief Team, including two seismologists from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and a geologist from the Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, was dispatched to Pago during 25 August through 3 September 2002. Observations were carried out with support from the Rabaul Volcano Observatory (RVO) and governmental agencies of both Japan and Papua New Guinea, including the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). A brief report of their observations is provided below. The Team extends their thanks to Chris Mckee, Hassan El-kherbotly, Isolde Macatol, and Ima Itikarai of RVO for their great assistance with the research activities.

On 27 August aerial inspections were made from a helicopter and a survey of air-fall tephra was done. Work the next day included the installation of a seismograph, infrared surveys from a helicopter, and field surveys of air-fall deposits. New lava was sampled on the 29th. Additional aerial inspections were accomplished on the 30th, and the seismograph was picked up. Fieldwork on 31 August consisted of sampling older lava.

During this work, the following observations were noted. 1) Two craters and four lava vents are aligned NW-SE from the middle slope NW of the Pago Central Cone to the Witori caldera. 2) New lava descending from each of the four vents forms complex lobes. The largest amount of lava erupted from the lowest vent, changing its flow direction to the NE and SW due to the caldera wall. 3) No eruption column was seen, though bluish white-colored fumarolic gas was being emitted. Sulfur was deposited on the crater rim. 4) A fault perpendicular to the crater line could be seen in the middle and W of the crater line. 5) The thickness of air-fall deposit is ~2 mm at a spot 10.5 km N of the craters (Rikau), and

A distinct thermal anomaly was observed in an infrared image at the lowest crater (figure 6), with a maximum temperature of about 350°C, indicating vigorous upwelling of lava. The lowermost part of the lava, the flow front, was also a high-temperature zone.

Figure 6. Thermal image of Pago showing recent lava flows and areas of active lava emission from the lowest vent on 28 August 2002. Low-temperature near-background values beyond the extent of the lava flows have been combined into a single shade to better define the area of lava flows. View is approximately to the SE. Courtesy of the Japanese Disaster Relief Team.

Seismicity was stable, but without doubt exceeds its background level, although only about 40 hours of data were recorded. Approximately 20-30 small seismic events, mainly high-frequency B-type earthquakes (BL events, predominant frequency of ~3-4 Hz), were detected per hour. The S-P time of about 1.6s and polarity of first motions suggest that the seismic waves came from the direction of the lava, possibly from near the vents. Besides these BL events, there were seismic events with more complex waveforms. They might be a succession of BL events or caused by rockfalls at the edge of the lava flows. No notable swarm-type activity occurred during the observation period.

Geologic Background. The active Pago cone has grown within the Witori caldera (5.5 x 7.5 km) on the northern coast of central New Britain contains the active Pago cone. The gently sloping outer caldera flanks consist primarily of dacitic pyroclastic-flow and airfall deposits produced during a series of five major explosive eruptions from about 5,600 to 1,200 years ago, many of which may have been associated with caldera formation. Pago cone may have formed less than 350 years ago; it has grown to a height above the caldera rim, and a series of ten dacitic lava flows from it covers much of the caldera floor. The youngest of these was erupted during 2002-2003 from vents extending from the summit nearly to the NW caldera wall. The Buru caldera cuts the SW flank.

Information Contacts: Ima Itikarai, Rabaul Volcano Observatory (RVO), PO Box 386, Rabaul, E.N.B.P., Papua New Guinea; Japanese Disaster Relief Team: Kohichi Uhira, Volcanological Division, Seismological and Volcanological Department, Japan Meteorological Agency, 1-3-4 Ote-machi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8122, Japan; Akimitsu Takagi, Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency, 1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0052, Japan; Mitsuhiro Yoshimoto, Volcano Research Center (VRC), Earthquake Research Institute (ERI), University of Tokyo, 1130032 111, Yayoi, Bunkyoku, Tokyo (URL: http://www.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/VRC/index_E.html); United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), United Nations, New York, NY 10017 USA (URL: https://reliefweb.int/); C. Dan Miller, Volcano Disaster Assistance Program, US Geological Survey, Cascades Volcano Observatory, 1300 Southeast Cardinal Court, Building 10, Suite 100, Vancouver, Washington 98683, USA (URL: http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/); David Innes, Air Niugini, PO Box 7186, Boroko, Port Moresby, National Capital District, Papua New Guinea (URL: http://www.airniugini.com.pg/).